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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (28178)	2/15/2003 5:36:13 PM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

<<Cyclicals by sheer definition - are NOT Buy & Hold plays....>> Fine, but your argument does little to address the concerns of the people you intend it for, since they do not think of gold as a mere commodity anymore. They are looking at this: economagic.com and trying to find a safer place to weather the storm.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (28178)	2/15/2003 5:40:11 PM
From: habitrail	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

<<You BUY/ENTER - when earnings, the underlying commodity price and most importantly SENTIMENT - are terrible & falling.>> Exactly. And since you keep echoing the wider market's sentiment that the dollar is fine, real estate is a great investment, and people that think otherwise are Kooks and PowerClowns, this must be the perfect time to go long on Gold.

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (28178)	2/15/2003 7:19:01 PM
From: lisalisalisa	Respond to of 36161

I agree that people have not been playing the gold sector via mutual funds, in my mind it is because we have not reached that stage yet.... Yes smart money was in early, and maybe smart money is/was bailing now. I bought in early, and as long as the 200 dma on the HUI continues its upward slope, and the HUI does not fail at that level- then I will consider it a bull market. May not get me out at THE top, but speculating about tops is the same as speculating about bottoms IMO. One has you catching falling knives, and the other leaves money on the table. I do not think I am being 'foolish' by sticking to my strategy which has worked for the last 2.5 years and counting.... BTW, here is a post from KITCO that I enjoyed about gold sentiment and past gold bulls...(message was posted Thursday I think and follows): "………………………………………at yesterday's closing low, a bullish divergence between XAU and HUI occurred, with the former making a new low for the move that wasn't confirmed by the latter. it may or may not prove to be important, but it further bolsters the argument that yesterday was actually the day to buy back in. that said, e-wavers would probably interpret the action of the past 3 days as a bearish a-b-c consolidation on the hourly charts. i haven't got access to Prechter's site, but i'm pretty sure that's how they would present it. they would probably also argue that consolidation below a previous support level is generally bearish. but then they'd completely overlook certain data points from the sentiment front ( see Hulbert: the gold timers are so unbullish currently it's truly hard to believe. the same guys incidentally were long and wrong all the way down in '97 ) . see also Schaeffer's report posted here yesterday - the skepticism accompanying the gold and gold share rally is in stark contrast to what has been seen on prior cyclical bull market occasions. we have extremely high put/call OI on the gold stocks, extremely high cumulative short interest, incredible skepticism from the 'analyst' ( a.k.a. 'guesser' ) community, as well as a plethora of non-financial press headlines expressing doubt over the rally's staying power. most importantly, while the public continues to pour money into mutual funds as soon as the broad stock market as much as twitches for a few days, practically zero money has been allocated to pm funds yet - on the false premise that it is 'too late'. however, we know from several 100 years of market history that the public NEVER fails to buy into the final leg up. we also know from more recent history that gold bull markets have never ended with gold stocks anything but wildly overvalued - and so far they haven't even managed to reach 'fair' value, not even at last year's late May high. so there are solid reasons to remain friendly toward the sector...technical strength combined with skeptical sentiment is a powerful combination every time. remember the internet stocks? after Barron's told its readers for the first time that they were overvalued and to be avoided they went up about 100-fold in the ensuing three years ( just a rough guess...Abelson started muttering about them in early '97 if i remember correctly ) ……………………………." So no gold bull has ever ended with shares undervalued according to that poster (but maybe this time it is different?) or ended with the public staying on the sidelines by not buying shares or mutual funds. The public does not buy gold futures in my view... Always appreciate reading your posts Slider, you are a good trader and seem very skillful at getting in before the crowd and taking the easy money.....so it is not without some angst that I am taking a different viewpoint to yours as of now, because I am aware what happened in the ‘oil patch’ as you refer to it. But in my opinion gold and oil are in different environments than they were back then, and trading them might be a bit different as well. Two to three years ago we were in a secular bull market for stocks and the dollar, now it seems we are in a secular bear market for stocks and the dollar and perhaps gold, oil and commodities trade different in these varying environments... it was a good trade for you no matter what happens from here on out however, nice job.