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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/14/2003 10:24:37 AM
From: 4figureau	Respond to of 5423

Consumer Sentiment Hits 9-1/2 Year Low Friday February 14, 10:20 am ET By Eric Burroughs NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers are anxious about the nagging threat of war in Iraq and the economic outlook, with a mid-month survey showing sentiment eroding to a 9-1/2-year low. The University of Michigan's preliminary February consumer sentiment index fell to 79.2, its lowest since September 1993, from 82.4 in January, market sources who have seen the report said on Friday. That was below expectations for 81.2. Confidence has been closely watched for clues on consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity. But the link between consumer confidence and actual spending has not always been strong, with retail sales outside of autos posting their biggest rise in two years in January even as confidence retreated on the month. "You have to view it as a statement about anxieties about these geopolitical developments," said James Glassman, senior U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan Chase in New York. "What we can see is the consumer numbers are showing a moderate rebound in activity. You'd think that's what matters. If people were depressed about their own personal finances you would not be seeing a revival in spending," he said Stocks, bonds and the dollar mostly looked past the sentiment data as they girded for a presentation from U.N. chief weapons inspector Hans Blix on Iraq, which some investors fear will be a prelude for the U.S. moving closer to launching an attack on Iraq. The Standard & Poor's 500 index (^GSPC - News) was up 0.5 percent, while the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury rose to 3.91 percent. While war fears have gnawed on consumers, particularly their views about the outlook for getting jobs and better incomes, the worries have yet to pinch spending in a big way. But economists said that could change should a conflict get under way. With businesses struggling to improve profits and thus remaining cautious about hiring or making investments, consumer spending has proven the linchpin of the economy's uneven recovery in the past year. Even as consumer confidence indexes have highlighted the worries among Americans, strong spending in December and January suggested consumption could grow a solid 4 percent in the first three months of the year. The preliminary current conditions index, which measures how consumers feel about their situation now, fell to 95.3 from 97.2. The expectations index, which tracks attitudes about the 12-month horizon, hit its lowest since September 1993 at 68.8 compared with 72.8 in January. The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment survey is based on telephone interviews with about 300 households around the country on personal finances, business and buying conditions, and is rounded out to 500 by month's end. The data are released directly to subscribers. biz.yahoo.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/14/2003 10:34:20 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5423

Bear Roundup: Dow drop raises fears of new low - Atlanta JC (2/14/2003 8:37 AM) accessatlanta.com Home loan default rate up - SF Gate (2/13/2003 7:47 PM) sfgate.com Auto sales hit the wall - Atlanta JC (2/14/2003 8:36 AM) accessatlanta.com More pension pressure on insurers - FT (2/14/2003 7:39 AM) news.ft.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/17/2003 10:36:50 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Bear Roundup: U.S. walking on debt tightrope Financial Post Monday, February 17, 2003 nationalpost.com EU To Cut 2003 Euro-Zone 1.8% GDP Growth Forecast Dow Jones Newswires sg.biz.yahoo.com Bleak outlook for Japan's economy - BBC (2/17/2003 5:38 AM) news.bbc.co.uk Foreign Direct Investment into China Rises 48 Percent From a Year Earlier - Bloomberg (2/17/2003 5:41 AM) quote.bloomberg.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/18/2003 10:15:39 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Bear Roundup: IMF says conflict may cut global growth 50% - Boston Globe (2/18/2003 7:00 AM) boston.com Just 23% of small firms see economy recovering - USAT (2/18/2003 6:57 AM) usatoday.com German Executives Grow More Pessimistic as Taxes, Wages Rise - Bloomberg (2/18/2003 6:36 AM) quote.bloomberg.com China January Industrial Production Rises 15 Percent, Outpacing Forecast - Bloomberg (2/18/2003 6:43 AM) quote.bloomberg.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/19/2003 9:50:09 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Gold I view gold as insurance and a long term holding Richard Russell snippet Dow Theory Letters 19 February, 2003 Gold -- At its intra-day high (Feb. 13) of 384.50, April gold was 14.8% above its 200-day moving average. As a general rule, when any item is 10 percent or more above its 200-day MA it's in overbought territory and due for a correction. I view gold as insurance and a long term holding. Here's the way I see matters unfolding. Fed governor Dr. Ben Bernanke now seems to be the spokesman for the Fed. Bernanke recently outlined the Fed's no-holds-barred stand against inflation. We have a "printing press" and we will use it, Bernanke announced in an almost shocking statement. Worrying about budget deficits is out. Bernanke wants all-out government spending (financed by the Fed) to keep this nation's economy going. So far, Greenspan's low-interest policy has failed to ignite the US economy. In fact, the US economy has slid into a state of sluggishness and semi-deflation. Bernanke wants new spending programs and the devil with the deficits. And that's what I see ahead (I also believe that Bernanke will be appointed Fed chief next year when Greenspan's tour expires). Gold in the US is priced in terms of dollars. Along these lines, I just received that latest Richebacher Letter (800 433 1528). Dr. Richebacher starts his February report as follows -- "The Coming Dollar Crash. Entering the New Year, the dollar's fate is definitely the single most important question for the world economy and world investors. It is really the greatest wild card in the world economic outlook. . . The single biggest buyer and supporter of the dollar is China's central bank. There are calls from many corners of the world that China ought to allow its currency to float upwards, and other countries would probably feel comfortable to follow suit. "No such calls are coming from the US, though it would help its manufacturers. This silence has an obvious reason. A general floating of all currencies would implicitly mean the end of the dollar standard, and that would badly hurt America's financial system by ending the capital inflows from central banks." Russell Comment -- China's positive trade balance is now $100 billion a year. With China's huge sales to the US, dollars continue to pour into China. China is diversifying by buying gold and euros. The lower the price of gold, obviously the better China likes it. China and the Chinese populace have always recognized the value and the power of gold. China, however, has one advantage that most of the rest of the world does not have. China possesses endless patience. China is perfectly happy to accumulate gold this year, next year and ten years from now. China's leaders want all the gold they can accumulate without, however, boosting the price of gold unreasonably to the upside. China knows that power goes to the nation that is an accumulator of gold. China is well aware of the dismal history of paper currency (since China was the originator of paper currency -- Marco Polo talked about it). Speaking of the dollar, this is Bill's Gross's (PIMCO) comment as of January 2003 -- Foreigners now hold $7 trillion of US assets, and they will not take kindly to a devaluing of their investments. 13% of the US stock market, 35% of the US Treasury market, 23% of the US corporate bond market, and 14% direct ownership in US companies are now in the hands of foreign investors. It's a theater crowded with foreigners, and if someone yells "Fire, Feur, or Kahi' there could be a rather crushing stampede to the exits (quote from my old friend, Charles Almon of Growth Stock Outlook). 321gold.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/20/2003 9:36:18 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Trade Gap Jumps to a Record $44.2 Billion Thursday February 20, 9:05 am ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly jumped 10.6 percent in December to a record $44.2 billion, as the seemingly insatiable U.S. desire for imports expanded and exports slumped, the U.S. government said on Thursday. The monthly trade gap far exceeded the average estimate of $38.8 billion by analysts before the report and pushed the tally for the year to a record $435.2 billion, as U.S. exports declined for the second year. In a sign the U.S. economy continues to outperform its major trading partners, imports increased 1.7 percent to $125.4 billion in December while exports declined 2.6 percent to $81.2 billion. The biggest factor behind the monthly export decline was a $2.2 billion drop in capital goods exports. On an individual country basis, the U.S. trade deficit with Germany set a record in December at $4.1 billion, fueled by a record $6.3 billion in imports. The trade gap with Japan, at $7.1 billion, was the highest since October 2000, when it reached the same level. The U.S. trade deficit increased 21.5 percent in 2002, propelled by record high imports from China and Western Europe. Bilateral trade deficits with China, Western Europe, Mexico, and South and Central America also set records in 2002. Imports from China surged to $125.2 billion, surpassing Japan as the United States' largest import partner behind Canada and Mexico. While U.S. exports to China also set a record last year, they totaled only $22.1 billion, pushing the bilateral trade deficit to a record at $103.1 billion. Sung Won Sohn, chief economist for the Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis, said the rapidly expanding trade deficit with China represents its appeal as a low-cost manufacturer. "In a difficult economy, everyone is trying to cut cost and raise productivity. The best way to do that is to produce in China," Sohn said. U.S. exports fell 2.5 percent in 2002 to $973 billion. Exports to Western Europe slipped to the lowest level since 1997 while U.S. exports to Japan were the lowest since 1993. Greg Mount, deputy chief economist at Bank One, said the higher trade deficit with Europe was due to a combination of forces including the strong U.S. dollar and a slump in U.S. productivity in 2001. With the dollar now having lost some of its value against the euro, and U.S. productivity on the upswing, the trade gap with Europe should narrow in 2003, he said. biz.yahoo.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/20/2003 9:39:17 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

Producer Prices Up, Fastest in Decade Thursday February 20, 9:22 am ET WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Prices paid to U.S. producers in January soared at their fastest pace in over a decade, pushed up by rising energy and auto costs, the government said on Thursday in a report showing far more evidence of inflation than expected. Overall producer prices climbed 1.6 percent, the largest rise since January 1990, and surpassing forecasts for a 0.5 percent increase. The number followed a 0.1 percent drop the previous month. Excluding volatile food and energy goods, prices still rose 0.9 percent, the fastest rise since December 1998 and also way above forecasts of 0.1 percent. "The report shows that energy prices could still hurt us. The Fed doesn't have as much room to play with," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. The report will likely come as a surprise to Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who said last week that he sees little sign of inflation in the economy. "We're still looking at the broad measures of average inflation and the best statistics that we have still indicate very low inflation with no evidence of an acceleration," Greenspan said. However, the central bank chief had also said the Fed would continue to keep an eye out for any inflation pressures that might emerge. The Fed and financial markets will be looking at Friday's report on U.S. consumer prices for a more complete picture of inflation pressures. In Thursday's report, gasoline and home heating oil prices surged as cold winter weather boosted demand and uncertainty over a possible war in Iraq took its toll on energy prices. Gasoline prices climbed 13.7 percent while heating oil rose 19.7 percent. Prices of passenger cars showed their fastest gain since October 1986, rising 3.5 percent. Auto manufacturers cut back on financial incentives in January, pushing up prices, after a bumper month for car sales in December fueled by attractive pricing offers. Prices in sectors outside autos and energy also rose. Pharmaceutical costs climbed 1.2 percent and capital equipment prices rose 0.7 percent. Food prices were up 1.6 percent. biz.yahoo.com

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (3275)	2/20/2003 9:44:31 AM
From: 4figureau	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5423

A Couple More: Brazil Raises Benchmark Lending Rate to 26.5% By Guillermo Parra-Bernal Brasilia, Feb. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil raised the overnight lending rate for a fifth time since October and ordered banks to deposit more money at the central bank overnight in a bid to curb inflation that has accelerated to a six-year high. The central bank raised the so-called Selic target rate by 1 percentage point to 26.5 percent, the highest level since May 1999. It also increased the amount of deposits that banks must keep overnight at the central bank to 60 percent to reduce the amount of cash in circulation. biz.yahoo.com Housing boom 'coming to an end' Fresh evidence has emerged that the UK housing market might be past its peak. After a year of sharp rises, prices in London and south-east England have fallen for the first time since November 2001, a report by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors has said. And chartered surveyors are expecting UK-wide house prices to fall over the next three months, as concerns over the economy and war on Iraq spread from the South East throughout the country. news.bbc.co.uk