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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28856)	2/18/2003 1:45:25 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I think the nukes get taken away from North Korea, and South Korea doesn't get any. Period. You are right that they won't roll over as easy as some ex-Soviet republics - but I expect they will be leaned on REALLY hard by the U.S. , Europe, and everyone else who buys their products. I think people like Vladimir Putin and Donald Rumsfield will find ways to persuade them. Both are well known pacifists with strong arguments (Strategic Rocket Forces, Trident Submarines). If the Korean pennisula isn't free of nukes, Japan can build a large force very quickly... and thay are likely to work. Maybe some U.S. troops stay to reassure the Koreans and the Japanesse - but not for long. (i hope as a tax payer) I think Japan has learned to live with South Korean competiton to some degree, by moving upmarket and by using Korea as a factory. After the fall of the Soviet Union and end of the Cold War, most of the world has enjoyed increasing prosperity and security. Now that's been threatened, not by big well organized states, but by a few rogue states and and stateless terrorists. The memory of relative peace and prosperity is still very fresh in the minds of many leaders - it's not a dream of some day. If a significant part of the civilized world thinks if has a chance to back to prosperity and more security by kicking the crap out of a couple of smaller, threatening nations and assorted whackos, I think it will happen, one way or another. Parts of the former Yugosalvia, such as Croatia, are moving towards "normal". There are still lots of problems there, but the Balkans are unlikeley to become a cause of another World War.