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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: big guy who wrote (28302)	2/19/2003 12:03:39 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 36161

big guy re: ["if we wake up tomorrow and hear that North Korea decided to level Japan or NY is on fire again and gold goes ballistic won't you feel a little small for grilling everyone that stayed in?"] ....no. Why would anyone feel small for protecting a 3.5 bagger indice run and putting it in the bank - when the market turned speculative & risk ramped as reward diminished ? Over the course of time; for each time that a proverbial once in a lifetime worse case scenario occurs - you'll walk away with all the money, the other 9 times - when they don't occur. The other point is, who said Gold goes ballistic if we see another Sept 11th ? The day before Sept 11th - the HUI closed @ HUI 63.71 When the market re-opened Sept 17th the HUI only moved up to HUI 67.73. - goldstocks moved 4 points - I think threadsters here have forgotten that. 4 HUI points as NY burned...wasn't exactly "ballistic" in my book. And even if Gold did ramp off of your example of Korea nuking Japan - who say's the better play wasn't to already be out on the longside - with all of the money safely in the bank & go short directly into that scenario ? And who says that the smart-money trade everytime on any future Market Shock-Events - won't be on the shortside anyway ? ["And what about those who took your advice and dumped it all? "] ...once again; the critics hear only what they want to hear. I never said "dump it all" - actually; I said - sell & bank everything down to your "core" position....quote/unquote - "be that a 10,15,20% Portfolio Position". I originally sold down to 30% from 50/60%, then all the way down to 10% - with tight stops. Got stopped out of some of that 10% , but I also have a little physical that was bought with prior profit-taking exits - and the physical; as I said before, is all I may end up holding if we ever enter a truly parabolic upside move. I'll live with that...being the last man atop a mania-move, isn't in my gameplan. - you'd think the Tech-Bubble lesson would still be fresh in peoples minds....maybe not ? I also have continually said; that when you take profits atop these quick upside moves; to perhaps take 10% of those banked profits and buy some outlying, out of the money calls & leaps...and I still have a few calls & LEAPS....but I am no longer portfolio weighted to Gold on the longside...and have started shorting with just CEF here, due to it's premium and that it was sitting on the $5 marginable Wall as well. I think far too many threadsters here think only of upside "potential" - virtually ignoring the historic track record of continually violent downside corrections on all of the recent significant upside HUI/Goldstock runs. It's all about "rewards" - and it's as if "RISK" doesn't seem to ever enter the equation. The other significant misconception seems to be that when, or if; we do actually see a high-level event unfold that ramps Gold - that those who've already taken profits and exited to a signficant degree - will miss the move. Why can't they buy into the move ? And if the arguement is that the move will occur too quickly - perhaps that type of move is better "shorted" into anyway - than played long ? ...we shall see.