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To: reaper who wrote (66592)2/18/2003 10:40:04 AM
From: marginmike  Respond to of 209892
 
Cake has alotof growth in front of it. Two interesting facts 1) Landloards will pay upwards of 2-3 million upfront in Cash towerds buildout for CAKE 2)Cake gets super preferential Leases because of its drwing power 3)Cake cost of buildout and ocupancy is usially very favorable. Cake also only has 42 stores they could easily 2X that number in 3-4 years without oversaturation. Cake is also a Very hard concept to duplicate because of its complex and sizable Menu. This is unlike PF or others that can and are being knocked off. A great strategy in that space is going long PF and cake or just cake and short about anyone else.



To: reaper who wrote (66592)2/18/2003 11:32:23 AM
From: who cares?  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 

### ### WACHOVIA SECURITIES ### ###
Friday Night Wait Report
Restaurant Industry Update

February 18, 2003 Jeff Omohundro, CFA / (804) 868-1125
Katie H. Willett / (804) 868-1135
John C. White, CFA / (804) 868-1150
L. James Borges, CFA / (804) 868-1102


Key Points
* For Friday, February 14, 2003, wait times averaged 54 minutes across all
surveyed units. Wait times averaged 30 minutes higher than the prior week. We
attribute the significant increase in wait times from the prior week in large
part to the Valentine's Day holiday which fell on Friday night this year.
* For the week, wait times were longest at Outback Steakhouse (88 minute average
wait) and shortest at California Pizza Kitchen (20 minute average wait).
* We are tracking wait times at leading casual dining chains on Friday nights
during peak dining hours. Over the long-term, our goal for this report is to
help us better gauge potential changes in same-store sales momentum for the
leading casual dining chains.
* The chains in our survey include: Applebee's, California Pizza Kitchen,
Carrabba's Italian Grill, The Cheesecake Factory, Chili's Grill & Bar, LongHorn
Steakhouse, O'Charley's, Olive Garden, Outback Steakhouse, Romano's Macaroni
Grill, Red Lobster, and Ruby Tuesday.




Discussion

We are tracking wait times at leading casual dining chains on Friday nights
during peak dining hours. Our survey reports wait times at 240 restaurant units
throughout the United States. Over the long-term, our goal for this report is
to help us better gauge potential changes in same-store sales momentum for the
leading casual dining chains.

-----------------------------====================------------------------------


Page 2 of 3


For Friday, February 14, 2003, wait times averaged 54 minutes across all
surveyed units. Wait times averaged 30 minutes higher than the prior week. We
attribute the significant increase in wait times from the prior week in large
part to the Valentine's Day holiday which fell on Friday night this year.

For the week, wait times were longest at Outback Steakhouse (88 minute average
wait) and shortest at California Pizza Kitchen (20 minute average wait).

Friday Night Wait Analysis
Average Wait Times
(in minutes)
Feb MTD QTD
14 Wkly MTD Y/Y QTD Y/Y
Chain TKR Avg Chg Avg Chg Avg Chg
Applebee's APPB 26 14 19 5 13 0
California Pizza CPKI 20 11 14 5 13 2
Carrabba's OSI 65 24 53 0 46 -5
Cheesecake Factory CAKE 86 59 56 20 36 4
Chili's Grill & Bar EAT 36 18 27 9 21 2
LongHorn Steakhouse RARE 57 35 40 20 25 4
Macaroni Grill EAT 70 44 48 25 28 2
O'Charley's CHUX 26 6 23 3 19 -3
Olive Garden DRI 76 46 53 22 35 2
Outback Steakhouse OSI 88 40 68 24 47 -3
Red Lobster DRI 78 48 54 11 37 -3
Ruby Tuesday RI 26 16 18 4 10 -3
Average 54 30 39 12 27 0
Source: Wachovia Securities, Inc.

We note that weekly wait time tracking is not a proxy for actual same-store
sales results and due to small sample sizes could vary materially from actual
sales momentum.