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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28913)	2/19/2003 2:17:46 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Prechter and some of the other Doomsters have one thing in common that strikes me as very odd: In their Doom scenarios, bad events will happen in hte future AND NO ONE will do anything to stop it , or mitigate it, or recover. No one from government, the think tanks, bausiness, academia or the media will be even AWARE of the impending doom, and no effort made to avoid it. In the real world, preventinve action occurs all the time. After the financial crisis of the late 1980's higher reserve & liquidity standards for banks were established world wide, with strongly urged voluntary compliance. Value at Risk, VAR, was established as a standard methodology for assesing risk. VAR has lots of problems, but iot is a big improvement over the uneven practices before. VAR also has attracted lots of critics, and now ways to compensate for the failings of VAR, and proposals for better standards. This doesn't mean the world is getting more perfect, but there is some (not total) learning occuring, and some preventive actions being taken. Even the the U.K. governments (one Tory, one Labour)have learned to deal with mad cow and now hoof and mouth disease. A 100,00 Brtions did not die from mad cow.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28913)	2/19/2003 2:20:58 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

I'm betting on inflation also, with a little still in bonds in case we get another blip of deflation or the inflation is delayed. If you are in Canadian currency, consider more Canadian Royalty Trusts, especially over the next few weeks as gas prices move higher and distributions increase.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28913)	2/19/2003 2:35:07 AM
From: Gary H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Is Prechter still calling for $200 POG? That's pretty extreme IMO.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (28913)	2/19/2003 2:49:42 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, I believe the Dow can splat at around 3500-5000. Back just prior to 9/11, I had the DJIA pegged at 7137, based primarily on real earnings (GAAP, not pro forma; stock options not accounted for in earnings). But the outlook has changed dramatically since then. Real earnings have continued to drop, and we now have some "ability" to estimate how stock options might impact a company's earnings (indirectly), and we can go to the S&P web site and at least get some reasonable figures to calculate potential future earnings. I now guesstimate that the Dow will eventually settle in at around 5168, again based on fundamentals, and using a reasonable multiple of 15, not a bear market multiple in the single digits. Prechter had always seemed to me to be extreme I used Mr. Prechter's market "forecast" only because he has the most dour outlook among "gurus" of all of the ones that I am aware of. I certainly hope he's wrong by a large magnitude, but I wouldn't make fun of the man or his beliefs. While I don't have an abiding faith in Elliot Wave research, I don't dismiss the findings out of hand either. I find it's sort of like believing in life on another planet. I've never seen a Martian that I know of, but why take unnecessary chances? <g> KJC