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To: slacker711 who wrote (127099)	2/21/2003 11:23:14 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

By the way, $50 in 6 years for a feature set that is probably worth more than $700 today (using Kyocera as a benchmark) turns out to be a 34% p/a price reduction versus the meagre 20% p/a that I was tossing out for discussion. And to which you disagreed. If we use 26% of $700 as the test of what I was saying, then our deal would pivot on $182 instead of $50 where it stands at the moment. Are you willing to put your money behind disagreeing with my 26% figure, or are you not so confident I am wrong that you need to hedge by factor 3 or more? On what price point shall we strike our deal: $50 or $182? [EDIT: I am very very comfortable that the functionality of the latest Kyocera combo jobber will be available in 6 years for less than $182] John

To: slacker711 who wrote (127099)	2/21/2003 12:40:10 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

this bet sounds like a difficult one to quantify. after all, as you point out, the stated price could be subsidized. because activation is usually part of the deal, it's not like you can just check the price on Ebay (oh wait, you prolly can...:) but i agree with John that features costing $700 today will be worth no more than $50 in 6 years. just look at what has happened to computers and other office equipment. even TVs. i saw a color TV at circuit city the other day for $59. the alarming thing is that price collapses seem to happen faster now than they did in the past. just look at how quickly DVD players got cheap, compared to how long it took for VCRs. and w/r/t cellphones, i remember just a couple years ago they had that fancy Nokia phone costing $800--you know, the first one without an external antenna and with the faux chrome exterior, which they used in The Matrix. but it was just a fancy monochrome phone, and its feature set is now available as an entry-level phone from places like T Mobile for free or like $25. so there's an $800 feature set down to free in like two years. compare that $800 phone of two years ago with the $700 Kyocera. what makes you think the Kyocera feature set will be able to maintain its value for so long? if anything, i think the erosion might be faster.