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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (18714)	2/22/2003 10:12:24 AM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206131

Green - Any near term dips brought on when / if commodity prices calm down, would be a buying opportunity. The difference is Winter demand, production decline rates and production. Present production is 5 bcf below levels in 1996 and there are 300 more NG directed rigs working to provide that reduced amount. Get long Greenie, and sell NBR when it crosses $55, WFT $55, KEG $16, CRK $16, DVN $65, etc... I have been saying for weeks that shit would hit the fan in late February and here we are. My weather forecasts are getting colder and snowier. eogresources.com

To: GREENLAW4-7 who wrote (18714)	2/22/2003 10:25:55 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206131

Greenlaw, 1996 was a great year to be in the patch. We were going gonzo upgrading rigs, and laying plans to construct a bunch of newbuilds. The buzzword back then was 'North American Gas'. That was really a fun time. First part of 1997 was great too, then the bottom dropped out. Asia tanked, LTCM, Russia, etc. - stocks went into a multi-year toilet. I'm not suggesting that will happen this time, but it bears watching. The stocks of liquids were 180 degrees where we are today 340mm crude vs. 270-ish. I'd suggest watching that number as any climb back north of 300 would not be good. Gas can be seen in the Highland chart you mentioned, just typical boom & bust stuff. Same story every time as we lurch from crisis to surplus & back again. There isn't any shortage now of gas prospects to drill - just a shortage of will to do it. Play this cycle, but keep an eye out for signs of the next glut. I'm still very bearish on the general markets, slightly bullish on energy, ditto for mining stocks. Right here and right now if the general market didn't suck I would be wildly bullish on energy. Perhaps a good approach would be short the general market, hedge that short with some energy long, keep a little mining to spice things up, and keep a healthy dose of cash to limit risks. Sharp