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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GO*QCOM who wrote (127128)	2/23/2003 3:31:40 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

<Qualcomm hoped to increase its market share with CDMA2000.> Jennifer isn't very precise. That should be QUALCOMM and cdma2000. <Qualcomm doesn't care which 3G wireless standard is deployed, Thornley said. The key is to get next-generation networks launched as quickly as possible because while Qualcomm collects royalties on WCDMA, it makes nothing on GSM. In addition, Qualcomm makes WCDMA chips that are used in cell phones, which will also boost its bottom line as the standard takes off. > According to GG [George Gilder], the fleets of whining Koreans and the GSM Guild [GG], aka Hagfish Haven [HH], the extorquerationate royalties QUALCOMM is charging would kill CDMA or seriously slow its acceptance. Well, since W-CDMA will have 10% royalties [5% for QUALCOMM and 5% for the rest, if the rest can agree to stop fighting like a pack of Tasmanian Tigers [TT] over the royalties, W-CDMA must be dead in the water, since the GSM service providers will be able to overlay their GSM networks with GSM1x in cdma2000 version and thereby avoid that unnecessary W-CDMA royalty. Why on earth would they want to buy equipment to do W-CDMA in 2GHz UMTS frequency which will cost 5% more than cdma2000, do a worse job [as shown by D'oh!CoMo's FOMA network], and because it's in higher frequency, get a lot worse coverage or have to have base stations packed a lot closer than a 900MHz cdma2000 network? QUALCOMM has completely outwitted the GSM Guild. QUALCOMM has obtained full rights to GSM without having to pay any royalties, by swapping the right to use QUALCOMM technology for the right to use GSM technology with each licensee. But the licensee also has to pay about 5% royalty and QUALCOMM doesn't have to pay anything for the GSM patents the licensee owns. Now, QUALCOMM has the whole GSM market open to them too. They use GSM like a Trojan horse. The subscriber buys a GSM phone, which happens to also have cdma2000 as an option in case they want to roam. Then they find that cdma2000 is spreading and they prefer that anyway [better and cheaper with swanky cyberspace power]. So cdma2000 will bust out across the GSM world. China Unicom is now trying GSM1x. China is fixin' to duplicate the Korean success, but an order of magnitude bigger and using cdma2000. Sure, they are messing with that TD-SCDMA stuff, but that'll probably not amount to anything. China is planning on exporting umpty $billion in GSM1x handsets and maybe infrastructure to Europe and everywhere else where GSM is polluting the landscape. That's currently 80% of the market and almost 100% of the actual territory covered by mobile phones. China stands to make a LOT of money. So, now what Mr GSM Guild? Ha! Ha! Ha! to you. I don't see what anyone would install W-CDMA, though QUALCOMM still seems to think it's a sure bet for a lot of subscribers. I don't get it: < "A year ago, people were saying GSM has 80 percent of the market so WCMDA will have 80 percent of the market," Thornley said, adding that many realize that is no longer the case. Thornly did acknowledge that as WCDMA deployments take off, it may eventually outpace CDMA2000. Greg Teets, an financial analyst who covers Qualcomm and other wireless companies for A.G. Edwards, said ultimately WCDMA will have the dominant position. "In the long term, it is still a WCDMA story," Teets said. "But it may not be an 80-20 split between WCDMA and CDMA2000. It may be more like 70-30 split or even a 60-40 split."...> The royalties alone should kill it if we believe all the whining over the past decade about QUALCOMM's derisory royalty at 5%. If the royalty doesn't, then the high frequency should. If neither of those kills it, then surely the continuing problems will. Maybe QUALCOMM thinks they can make it work fairly well, so that's why they think there'll be some market for it and maybe bigger than the cdma2000 market. I don't believe it. I think VW40 was vapourwear for a GSM Emperor with no clothes. VW40 did its job, which was to con the GSM service providers into hanging in there and install lots of GSM equipment and to extend the reign of GSM as long as possible by delaying CDMA. Well, CDMA market share is well established now, gaining ground and the cdma2000 tsunami with 1xRTT and 1xEV-DO now rolling out flat out, proving the excellence of the technology and GSM1x is now under trial. When GSM1x is proven to be more effective and cheaper than W-CDMA, there'll be a second flood. W-CDMA is going to be DOA. Because QUALCOMM is likely to get perhaps 95% of the multi-mode, multiband GSM/cdma2000/W-CDMA ASIC market, there is going to a vast surge as the whole GSM world switches to cdma2000 over a fairly short period of maybe 5 years. The demand for photos is proven. Images are bandwidth gobblers. Then, cyberspace access will be hugely popular - porn, for a start, will be in high demand in mobile applications and that takes bandwidth. Any service provider not providing fast cyberspace access and cyberphones will be in trouble. South Korea has shown the demand. Notice how nobody mentions the great, world-conquering i-mode any more. Mqurice

To: GO*QCOM who wrote (127128)	2/26/2003 6:43:12 PM
From: verdad	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

Anyone have any idea what Irwin Jacob's prediction regarding availability of CDMA2000 3G in U.S. was? $99 a month for dial-up data rates (available through Verizon in most areas, with faster speeds and better pricing available only in select markets like Duluth, MN) doesn't quite seem to signal that widespread CDMA2000 3G has arrived in the U.S. quite yet. May take a little while in the U.S....could take longer elsewhere. Strange that in one of the most Internet dense cities, San Diego, QUALCOMM's own backyard, CDMA2000 3G is not available. Could illustrate the difficulty that wireless technology companies have in influencing the actions of wireless carriers--or--the demand for 3G may simply not justify the costs carriers might incur to launch it (ask Europe). So the chicken and egg dilema begins to lessen the sense of urgency that once existed where 3G was concerned. Rhetorical question: And why have those insiders kept selling shares for the past three years at nearly the highest prices of the year? Diversify, diversify. To some, this may constitute signalling by management. To others, it may simply be good portfolio management (didn't imj recently give $120 million to the San Diego Symphony? May not really need to worry about managing portfolios too much). Caveat emptor.