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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (8788)	2/25/2003 6:11:47 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95640

Thanks for taking the time to explain your thoughts on indicators, instinct and market timing. We agree on more than we disagree on. However, a lasting bottom in May would be highly unusual. After the start that we have had this year (a poor start but not awful) unless we see a dramatic decline in the next 3 months a true market bottom in the month of May just is not very likely on a historical basis. And history does repeat itself. Maybe by the end of October we might see a real bottom. How will we know this has happened? When we hit that bottom you can bet your bottom dollar pun intended that the VIX will be back over 50. The SOX will have an RSI of 30, or below, on the 6 month daily chart after having penetrated the lower Bollinger Band several times. The BPNDX will be below 20 again. The number of bears in the newsletter writers investors intelligence survey will at least outnumber the bulls and perhaps be as high as 55%. The equity put to call ratio will be over 1.0 on several occasions within a few days of each other. Declining issues on the NASDAQ and DJIA will outnumber those making gains by well over 10 to 1 on high volume for that particular point in time. Now if these sentiment and technical indicators reach the levels I am hoping to see by May then I would happily join you in going long at least for a while but for right now I don't think even a rapid conclusion to the situation in Iraq will end this bear market. JMHO, RtS