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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29341)	2/28/2003 11:56:23 PM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

If USD goes suddenly to 1/1000 ounce of gold, 70 yen would probably buy one USD.... Some countries might have a hard time exporting to the U.S. in that situation. Like everybody except Canada and Mexico. U.S. based gold miners (NEM , ABX, etc. would do well) U.S. based exporters would do well, but since their based currency is USD, it would tend to cancel any gains. A situation like that doesn't leave many investment options except gold, maybe some energy, and selective shorts or bear funds of various markets.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (29341)	3/1/2003 1:02:38 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Chirac's nighthmare sceanario : Let's say the U.S. doesn't try to establish real democracy in Iraq, but tries something like this - Get rid of most of the first and second levels of leadership, Tell the rest of the government - no more murder, no more torture, but you can steal up to 5% of the oil revenue (down from Saddam's 20%) then 10% if you increase prodcuction. Set up a National Reconcilation Commison along the lines of South Africa. Outlaw private revenge - tell people to take a number and get in line with the Commision Have their spy networks cooperate with the U.S. (Rudolf Gahlen's organization in Germany is a precedent for this) (This should make Saudi Arabia and Iran nervous.) Dumps a bunch of food aid on Iraq, plus agricutural assitance to farmers. Hand over all WMD stuff, obviously. Make the armed forces much smaller, but de-Baathed and more professional. Equip them with defensive capabilty to deter Iran. Maybe later sell the capabilty of rolling into Saudi Arabia ? Set up Voice of America transmitters in Iraq. Take over about 3-5 military bases for U.S. use on long term leases. and - Let Iraq contract with whoever thay want for oil production. Mostly the Russian, but even the French. And get 80% of U.S. troops out in 9 months, Iraq under their own rule with a 'free election' by Spring of 2004. Will it be a real democracy - NO - maybe like the Philipines was, but not quite like Turkey is ... It should stop starving quickly, then become mildly prosperpous in about a year. Lots of food production capability, plenty of water, lots of trade routes, lots of cheap energy. And let's say this can be done without French or U.N. approval. So now the French can complain all they want... In this sceanario, I don't think the Iraqis will be askng for payment in Euros. Kuwaitis won't. I don't think the Saudis would find it in their interest either...I think we can exclude the rest of the Gulf states. Long term, the U.S. is able to apply much more pressure on Saudi Arabia. They either crack down and contain the Wahabi fanantics, or....we find someone else to run Arabia. I think the Bush administration has a plan, they just don't dare articulate it at this time. Part of it is summed up in the phrase "The road to Saudi Arabia runs through Bagdhad." At the end, the Wahabis will be contained or crushed. Pakistan will not have nuclear weapons, or at least very few, and those will be under tighter control. The mullahs will not be running Iran. Other Islamic countries that try to develop WMD will be persueded to not do so. Consequences of this - Checneha and Tibet and human rights ? So long. North Korea - mostly on ignore. Send them food. Russia and China relations improve. France's efforts to contain the "hyper power " fail.