To: chowder who wrote (19362 ) 3/1/2003 9:50:11 AM From: russwinter Respond to I think the disconnect between the OSX (like) price and the commodity comes down to two prevailing premises. The energy bear premise (propaganda in my view) can be read ad nauseam here and in various new releases, CNBC, etc. It (I've called it TOHOE: trust of hope over experience) holds that most if not all of the events (Venz, weather, so called Iraq war premium, and on and on) leading up to the crisis will be magically reversed, and that the world can some how be made right. The huge inventory and output shortfalls can be cured (now it's "releasing SR"). It holds that the crisis is sort of a fluke, or an outlier event, and not the natural order of things, and that any further problems (such as torched ME oil fields) are highly unlikely, or that somehow cold weather forecasts for March will be "averted", or that summer will be room temperature all across the nation. A second component of the TOHOEs is that the market quickly adjusts or overadjusts as it did in 2001 to shortages. Adjustments can be manifested through aggressive drill bit activity (new supply) and/or demand destruction.
