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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (19387)	3/1/2003 2:26:10 PM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

>>> but if natgas prices are at their appropriate economic equilibrium point, then it should be a no-brainer to go to Trinidad. <<< You seem exactly right on that to me. Whether it's fertilizer or plastic bags, it's a hell of a lot easier to ship solid materials than LNG. They don't evaporate, don't explode (unless you do a Texas City ammonium nitrate thing), don't spoil, are easy to package or ship in bulk.

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (19387)	3/1/2003 2:55:01 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

I dont think the demand destruction of a few fertilizer plants is on the table. They are already dead. The future casualties will be those who cant survive at $5+ and those who cant survive the next 12 months much higher than $5. Canadian drilling is close to an all time high in response to prices. The US rig count has averaged about 700 NG rigs for the last year, production is down 6% and April NG is going for $8, March closed $9 and the 12 month future strip is $5.90. At what RIG count do you think production will level off? Of do you think prices just keep going higher until demand falls to present production?