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To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/2/2003 4:24:36 PM
From: greg s	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

re: next year to two years, while the economy languishes and we possibly dip into another recession. Thoughts welcome. If you really believe a languishing economy for the next 2 yrs & a double dip recession (which I don't), I would recommend CD's with no more that $100K (FDIC limit) in any one institution.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/2/2003 11:05:13 PM
From: Amy J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi Mindmeld, I'd write covered calls and plow the premiums right back into the stock market, using the downturn to your advantage. But being cautious that stocks may rise. The last time I bought bonds, was in the early 90's and again in mid-90s when interest rates were high. That's when I like to buy bonds. Buying bonds at a 40 year low doesn't appeal to me. People are still rushing to bonds and many won't touch stock. That's probably a bull call for stocks. Imagine if a person confuses a bond fund with a bond too - Peter Lynch was on a program expressing concern about that. Did some hiking today & yesterday - unbelievable the amount of real estate for sale in the country. Also, in the city, saw 4-6 large office complexes in a row that were just empty, not including the empty buildings that previously held Excite. Regards, Amy J

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/3/2003 12:30:06 AM
From: ehasfjord	Respond to of 77400

There are several companies "out there" that pay a very nice dividend (5% or greater) that have sustained earnings over the past 10 to 15 years, are relatively debt free, and are also relatively cheap due to all of the war fears. Suggest you use a user driven search engine to locate them. These are NOT growth companies, but are plodders - but will still be around years from now. Suggest that you do a crosscheck with your findings back to 73 - 75 - 76 when there was a recession and see how these companies faired. Having said that, depending upon your circumstances (I'm 60, retired, and also have done fairly well in real estate), My take on things is still toward the large tech. com"pain"ies that have 0 or very very little debt, and a strong product that will be needed in the future. At todays prices, many of these companies are undervalued considering what they may bring in the future. Another BTW, most of my "stuff" is not in the equities market. I purchased a ton of tigrs and cats years ago when interest rates were very high and I felt that these rates had to fall. I'd rather be lucky than good any day. Another BTW, I do not see a recession coming up as hard as what has been seen in the past. This is due to the very low interest rates that we have at present + the market normally rises after a war. The entire situation is screwy - You can't win, you can't break even, and you can't quit the game anon. However, you can kick over the table and exit very quickly (me), Take Care!

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/3/2003 1:32:37 PM
From: GVTucker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

mindmeld, RE: Question for any remaining long term buy and holders left on this thread: what do you buy when sustained oil spikes and low consumer confidence virtually guarantee a recession? While I might not be a dyed in the wool buy and holder, I do have a longer time horizon than just about anyone else on this thread. The current price of oil is largely irrelevant. Oil is a commodity. It will certainly revert to its long term trend within 2 years. Consumer confidence is even a shorter term phenomena. Only 3 years ago the U of M index hit an all time high. That nicely coincided with the market top. Consumer confidence is certainly below trend, now, that is true. But that has nothing to do with where it will be a year from now. You have no idea and I have no idea. It is fruitless to guess where consumer confidence will be then, so why let a long term strategy be guided by that? For an equity investor with a long term time horizon, the only thing that should matter is the valuation of the company. While the macroeconomic environment is an important factor, it is a factor that no one can reliably predict. Best thing to do, then is just ignore the macro environment.

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63186)	3/4/2003 12:40:02 AM
From: ehasfjord	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

I forgot to mention a couple of companies that came to mind (must be due to advancing age). MO 7.4 p/e, $38.98 / shr, 6.6% div. yield and RJR 6.10 p/e, $40.45 / shr, 9.5% div. yield. I do realize that RJR is the parent of MO, but both are separately traded. In addition, they are off their 52 week lows and headed upward. Both have huge interests in other areas + the proposed no tax on dividends + the restriction(s) coming about re: litigation + both have a HUGE overseas mkt. They are both way down from their 52 week highs. Since I'm a smoker (dammit) it doesn't bother me to own these two. Another BTW, tobacco is getting to be a far less part of their business - except for overseas. As stated before, I do own (recently Oct. 2002) both. Take Care, and Best Wishes!