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To: Clappy who wrote (24080)	3/2/2003 8:11:45 PM
From: altair19	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 104167

Clappy, the Congregationalists have been pushing the peace message overtly, arranging peace marches etc. <More and more folks are not buying into Cheney's master plan> The thought of imposing a democracy (with the exception of Isreal) in an area that has only had oligarchies, dictators and tribal rulers for the past 10 centuries is breathtakingly stupid. I do know that it's not a good idea to keep 100,000 combat troops penned up for too long...they'll start getting at each other and they are not set up for defensive positions. I know that none of the current leaders in the Middle East trust or want Saddam in power...he is a destablilizing influence on the whole area. We are probably doing what everyone wants done but will not admit it. That's what makes this whole thing a phucking conundrum. I know the French, Germans and Russians are heavily invested in the oil fields and equipment..companies like Schlumberger are in there big time. At the same time those sanctimonious bastard guys are tucking it to us, and rendering the UN useless in not supporting the resolution (which they orginally signed.) It's a real mess. I think we will be in there within 4 weeks and it won't take long to finish. I think they will put a strangle hold on the press. The hard part will be what happens afterwards....refugees, chaos in the infrastructure, food shortages, water shortages etc. However, I do think the Iraqi people will be glad to be rid of Saddam...the incredibly sad thing is how many people will die to achieve that goal. We then have a 10 year foreign relations problem to solve with our "allies". At no time in our history will voting be more important. ....and, like the Pope says, we should pray for peace. Altair19

To: Clappy who wrote (24080)	3/3/2003 8:17:09 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 104167

fyi...I HOPE this market forecaster is right...;-) From John P. Hussman's Weekly Market Comment: <<...My personal opinion (which we don't invest on and neither should you) remains far outside the consensus. I don't think there will be a war. At this point, it is hardly a question of whether the U.N. security council will go along with war, but rather, how much international reproach the Administration would incur by going to war without U.N. sanction. While Iraq has been neither trustworthy nor forthcoming, there is a growing sense that it can be contained without the use of force. It may not be disarmed quickly, and it may not be compelled to a regime change, but there is sufficient consensus that it can be contained, if at the cost of continued frustration and prolonged diplomacy. This view significantly hampers the ability to recruit support for an immediate strike. Moreover, if history is of any use at all, the probability is that a war would not increase the chances for regional peace, but could instead radicalize neighboring countries, not to mention potential terrorists. When evaluating the current push for war in terms of historical lessons, it is difficult to argue that present-day Iraq is parallel to Germany in 1938. The appropriate pages for reference are not the fall of Czechoslovakia to Germany, but the Gulf of Tonkin, and the emergence of the Khmer Rouge following the 1970 U.S. invasion of Cambodia. As I noted a few weeks ago, any decline in the likelihood of war is likely to be accompanied by an increasing number of news stories focusing on the human costs - not only the direct casualties from intense air attacks (which would occur first, regardless of whether Iraqi troops prove willing to surrender), but the predictable loss of thousands of children as a result of disruptions in sanitation and food supplies. These stories have begun to appear, but still only occasionally. Against these arguments, standing down from war is often cited as unacceptable, as it might risk a reduction in U.S. prestige and lowered international perceptions of U.S. resolve. Ultimately, the probability of war rests on whether or not it comes to be seen as an inferior, potentially destabilizing solution and a last resort, despite the political problems that this might create...>> hussman.com