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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (29039)	3/4/2003 4:05:28 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 36161

["The U.S., despite its huge and increasing trade deficit, does not have debt as a percentage of gross domestic product at levels that are as scary as you apparently believe"] ...BINGO ! "as a % of GDP" Most of the fundamental upside drivers that the Mega-Bull Gold-Hypesters point to, such as - - weakening USD - growing account deficit - still historically overvalued stock market - bond market bubble - unsustainable consumer spending/MTG Refi-Bubble - possible derivatives crisis - weak global economy - high risk geopolitical environment - huge personal, private & public debt levels ...are all "real" issues. Many, if not most could turn negative to a degree that could possibly push gold higher...many could continue to weaken, some could collapse, or erupt. But, the problem that the Gold Hypesters have; is they see & hear only what they want to see and hear. They only see the upside for Gold & the downside on all of those fundamental issues. On the USD - they do not see the incredible downside support that exits in having China's currency pegged to the USD and having both China & Japan's export economies tied to a "stable" USD. They fail to realize that America is the Engine that pulls the Global Economic Train...it is not in anyone's best interest that America falters economically. On the account deficit...while a significant problem; in the context of a percentage of GDP - not in the meltdown area, not even close. For Derivatives ? - the market has absorbed the Asian Tiger crisis, LTCM, Mexico, Argentina , Brazil & the Russian Collapse...along with the fall of WCOM & Enron...Sept 11th and a market shutdown - and the sky did not fall. We can weather a JPM storm...and much more. On the Geopolitical stormfront... we are having victory, after victory in the War on Terrorism...Saddam is going to be removed from Power and Al Quaeda continues to be hunted down like the rabid, hairless, running dogs they are. Economically... once Saddam is removed...we will begin to assure the Global Economic Engine is propelled by free-flowing Cheap Oil... and it's coming. The Finance/Debt Orgy is being addressed by prudent credit tightening...and consumers are starting to save and paydown debt... a soft landing vs. a crash landing is beginning to develop....there is no Real Estate Bubble in Housing on Main St USA... speculative sub-market niches are cyclical and irrelevant to the broad housing market & economy. Stock Market looks poised to perhaps bottom out at DOW 6750ish...while not the 5,000's that many anticipated; certainly a reasonable deflation from bubble territory. Optimism will replace Pessimism sooner than most think...and I for one...will be very happy to step out of the Bear Cave into the bright sunlight of Peace & Prosperity that America is bringing to the world, by once again, leading the World in Fighting Evil.

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (29039)	3/4/2003 4:50:52 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

$34 trillion in debts for USA Inc, 3.4x singleyr GDP US Govt debt of $6.4 trillion interest payments of $700 billion annually Household debt is 108% of annual income it takes $4.5 new fiat dollars to produce a $1 of new GDP trade gap is approaching 6% of annual GDP numerous examples of corporations drowning in debt e.g. Ford Motor $170B in outstanding debt $7.8B net worth (mktcap) you vastly underestimate the debt levels you vastly minimize their dire effects / jim