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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (29098)	3/6/2003 3:47:27 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

["when gold is near #400 next, you will eat your words / jw"] ...Tokyo-JimWillie, I thought you had me on ignore ? When/if Gold reaches $400 - it may, or may not make you, me, or anyone else any money. $400 Gold may be a better shorting opp, than a long opp anyway....$390 was - now wasn't it >>>VBG<<< !?!?!? Those already out - have the profits locked away. They can go long on a breakout. They can go short on a breakout. They can short into weakness momenteum. They can re-enter long when/if their buy points are reached on weakness (without having already lost 20-30 upside points). Or, they can continue to just stay out....and wait for the Geopolitical, Economic & Currency catalysts to play out some more...that's what I'm basically doing. - I bought "zero cost" LEAPS & outlying, out of the money CALLS with a portion of the profits taken from each trading range....I'm still retaining a small portion of those, but am short CEF and 90ish% Cash right here, right now. - I wouldn't hesitate to re-enter on a moments notice and trade goldstocks long on an event-driven catalyst...nor would I hesitate at a moments notice to step in and broadly short goldstocks on an event-driven catalyst. ...merely depends on whether the market is correctly, or incorrectly assessing the reason for the move and then whether the event they are reacting to, is fundamentally a short term, or longterm catalyst etc. $357 Gold today = HUI 128 Gold just ran to $390 and the HUI rolled over "AGAIN" at 150. For everyone here who owns/trades & invests in Gold stocks - they did NOT benefit from $390 Gold - so why would another $10 at $400 matter JW ? The stocks have disconnected from POG, because "FOR NOW" they see the move in POG as anomalous to the bullion market and realize that the move was an over-bought WAR/TERRORISM HEDGE - nothing more, nothing less. Every positive headline of Saddam's inceasing cooperation, or positive comments from the UN Inspectors, or negative anti-US commentary from France, Germany, or Russia - led to Gold selling off...and you people still question whether the move in POG of late was "WAR/HEDGE" related ? I honestly do not mean to be rude and I'm sorry, but anyone who still questions this - is an absolute imbecile - period. The Gold Up-Cycle is not in it's infancy here, it is basically 3 years old...Gold is no longer a secret here people, it's been in the headlines, it's spoken about by the proverbial shoehsine boys, all the con-job/hype scams on gold are all over the internet, the radio and in print, Gold Funds are atop all the Leader Boards...now it's about: 1. Risk to reward. 2. Time value of money. 3. Lost Opportunity Cost. 4. WARNING SIGNS - ie: stocks lead the commodity on the way up & the way down. - WHAT did the stocks just do ? ...they disconnected from the commodity (POG) going to new, higher-highs....NOT a good sign. - WHERE did they disconnect ? ...at the same damn DOUBLE TOP level of HUI 150/155 ..........NOT a good sign. Anyone who sold into the May 2002 HUI Rally and parked the proceeds in a damn passbook savings account at 1% is now ahead of anyone here who had bought & held. 1 Year of DEADMONEY...actually not even "dead" money, as the HUI is now down 15% from last May. For the 113th time: This is NOT a buy & hold sector; never has been & never will be. Those who traded the slow moving, very easy target, Gift-Horse/Silver Platter pullbacks in July, Aug & Oct 2002 - got a very HIGH REWARD-LOW RISK- 2nd bite at the HUI 95 to 155 Apple. Those who pocketed any significant portion of that 60 point Trading Range Play; after exiting last May/June...have $425, maybe even $450 GOLD and HUI 200ish already covered and safely tucked away in the bank. That WAS the Big & Easy Money portion of the Gold Cycle. The High Reward/Low Risk money from THIS cycle is gone...."for now". ...Yes Elvis WAS wearing "yellow" shades, but he has now left the building. JW - WHY would $400 Gold hold any significent interest for anyone who saw this recent part of the cycle for what it was ? ie: a 2ND PROFIT TAKING/EXIT OPPORTUNITY ! ...that saw sector risk volatility ramp & reward opportunity diminish proportionately. The Commercials were and are still strongly SHORT GOLD. The Stocks have rolled over in a DOUBLE TOP. The Stocks completely DISCONNECTED from the underlying commodity's move to new higher-highs. The smart thing to ALREADY have done, is to have taken the money off the table & to now sit back....and let some of the Geopolitical & Economic catalysts play themselves out a little bit...let OTHERS shoulder the RISK and bank the REWARDS. ...aint no Gold-Train leaving the station that anyone isn't going to be able to catch. For NOW, the risk is once again with - greed....ie: being a HOG vs being a PIG and staying in too long.