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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (79962)	3/6/2003 3:19:24 PM
From: Neocon	Respond to of 281500

You might be right, I need to read around a little more to evaluate it.......

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (79962)	3/6/2003 3:31:46 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

England is getting wobbly, looks more and more likely they are going to "go Turkish" on us. The Hawks keep on repeating their mantra: Everyone Will Get In Line If We Show Resolve. Ain't happenin'. Jacob, this is a very idiosyncratic interpretation of English politics. What do you base it on?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (79962)	3/6/2003 3:33:54 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

2. Blair can't go to war, without a UN SC resolution. He would lose a vote of confidence; he is already facing a big revolt within his own party. Blair promised not to go to war without UNSC approval or an unreasonable veto. The US must allow him his 'unereasonable veto' or he may indeed fall. Here is a current statement of British attitudes. The British public is putting high stock in UN inspectors finding WMDs. Of course, the French say that find WMDs would demonstrate that inspections are working. It's a dilemma and I wouldn't do the job for $400,000 a year. War With Iraq mori.com 5 March 2003 A majority of the public still disapproves of Tony Blair's handling of the Iraq situation, but there has been almost a 10% swing in his favour since mid-January as he has fought to justify his position. Three quarters (75%) of people in Britain would now be prepared to support British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq. However, this support is conditional both on UN inspectors finding proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and on the UN Security Council voting in favour of military action. In the absence of these two conditions, only a quarter (24%) would support British involvement, and opposition rises from 18% to 67%. But opposition falls to two in five (41%) if the inspectors do find evidence that Iraq is hiding weapons of mass destruction - even if the UN still does not vote in favour of action. As was the case in previous surveys, men are considerably more likely than women to back a war: if the inspectors find proof of Iraqi weapons and the UN votes for military action, 84% of men but only 67% of women would approve of British troops joining in; with no proof of Iraqi weapons and no UN vote in favour, 28% of men would still send in British troops, but only 19% of women would do the same. Overall, men are almost evenly split on the Prime Minister's handling of the Iraq situation, 44% approving and 49% disapproving, but women disapprove by two-to-one, 57% to 27%. Approval of Mr Blair's handling of the situation is highest among Labour supporters, of whom 52% back him while 39% are dissatisfied. He has the support of only 37% of Conservatives and 24% of Liberal Democrats. Technical Details MORI Telephone Surveys interviewed a representative quota sample of 985 British adults aged 18+ on 28 February-2 March 2003. Data are weighted to match the population profile. Topline Results Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way the President of America, George W. Bush, is handling the current situation with Iraq (the country ruled by Saddam Hussein)? Approve 23 Disapprove 65 Don't know 12 Net approve -42 Q Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Prime Minister, Tony Blair, is handling the current situation with Iraq? Approve 36 Disapprove 53 Don't know 12 Net approve -17 Q Would you support or oppose British troops joining any American-led military action against Iraq in each of the following circumstances? The UN inspectors find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and the UN security council votes in favour of military action Support 75 Oppose 18 Don't know 7 The UN inspectors find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, but the UN security council does not vote in favour of military action Support 46 Oppose 41 Don't know 13 The UN inspectors do not find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, but the UN security council votes in favour of military action Support 41 Oppose 46 Don't know 12 The UN inspectors do not find proof that Iraq is trying to hide weapons of mass destruction, and the UN security council does not vote in favour of military action Support 24 Oppose 67 Don't know 10

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (79962)	3/6/2003 3:44:15 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Blair may reject 'unreasonable' vetoes abc.net.au In another development British Prime Minister Tony Blair has signalled he could be prepared to wage war on Iraq even if several UN powers veto a new resolution authorising military action. Until now Mr Blair has said he reserves the right to go to war without UN authorisation if one permanent member of the Security Council uses its veto power unreasonably. But in a debate on a music television channel Mr Blair has appeared to extend that proviso to include multiple vetoes. "If there was a veto applied by one of the countries with a veto, or by countries that I thought were applying the veto unreasonably... in those circumstances we would," he said. "But we are fighting very hard to get a second resolution through." Meanwhile British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw says Iraqi President Saddam Hussein can stay in power if he fully complies with UN Security Council demands that he disarm. Mr Straw has made the comment at the UN headquarters in New York, ahead of a report to be delivered to the Security Council early tomorrow morning by the chief weapons inspector Hans Blix on Iraq's level of cooperation. However Mr Straw says he believes it is clear the Iraqi leader has not fully complied with UN demands.