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Strategies & Market Trends : The Great Coin Toss Experiment II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (64)	3/7/2003 1:29:14 AM
From: Sojourner Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 188

I have been thinking about the coin toss approach alot lately. Basically from what I can tell so far the coin toss method will lose money. Tossing a coin is 50/50. The market appears to be about 35-48% range to be right with the broker and the spread getting the difference. In Tradestation I have been testing selling short after the open and covering at the end of the day. I also went on the buy side. Both sides lost money on every stock I tested long term. Which makes sense since it is a 50/50 shot, then minus commission, one has the loss. I tried overnight, and more surprising to me was the results seem be about the same. What I find surprising is I tested this with some major downtrending stocks. The have pretty much have to collapse to have gains when shorting. So it appears to me there is definitely a house advantage. I am working backwards now to find a way to improve the odds.

To: Jorj X Mckie who wrote (64)	3/7/2003 5:30:41 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 188

Date JXM Coin Actual ------------------------------ 012103 Up Up Down 012203 Up Down Down 012303 Up Up Up 012403 Down Down Down 012903 Down Down Up 013003 Down Up Down 013103 Down Up Down 020303 Down Up Up 020403 Down Down Down 020503 Down Up Down 020603 Down Down Up 020703 Down Up Down 021203 Down Up Down 021303 Down Up Down 021403 Up Up Up 021803 Down Down Up 021903 Down Down Down 022003 Down Down Down 022103 Down Up Up 022503 Down Up Up 022603 Down Down Down 022802 Down Up Up 030303 Down Up Down 030403 Down Down Down 030503 Down Down Up 030603 Down Up Down 030703 Down Up Up 031003 Down Up JXM - 16/27 Coin - 14/27