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Politics : DON'T START THE WAR -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lizzie Tudor who wrote (19428)	3/11/2003 8:11:20 PM
From: Karen Lawrence	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25898

Mighty big "ifs" posed by Jochen Jansen on FADG: "Jochen Jansen Tuesday, Mar 11, 2003 8:02 PM Respond to of 81371 IMO if the UK backs out and the UN doesn't sanction then the US will experience negativity far far beyond anything they could presently envision. Not necessarily. Much will depend on how the war proceeds. Some criteria for a success: - "Few" civilian casualties - Saddam deposed and possibly arrested - No civil war - No major humanitarian crisis - Roadmap for transition to Iraqi government - No major revenge terror attacks If these aims are reached then there would remain no lasting damage of the international standing of the USA. Any major setbacks, however, would spell trouble, both within the USA and internationally. I lack the knowledge for an educated guess of the likely outcome. I have no inside information of the strategic and tactical capabilities of the US Forces which will be crucial for a rapid victory. I also lack the knowledge of the morale of the Iraqi forces. The loathing of Saddam's regime could be so strong that there might be hardly any resistance, even by the Republican Guards. As Carl seems to be busy currently here a tradesports.com update as a barometer of what people generally believe: the last trade of the IRAQ.SADDAM.JUNE03 contract (Saddam deposed by the end of June) was 87 today - i.e. traders believe there's a 87% probability that Saddam is gone by then. Time will tell!"