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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63227)	3/12/2003 1:19:56 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

mind, Do you honestly believe that the economy will go back to the right track if the war worry is behind us? I don't think so. And also be ready for the REIT bubble to burst sooner than you expected. I will be very surprised if we don't get into a full blown recession within the next 2 years. The DOW is on its way to sub 6k, or even lower. However, I am sure there are at least 2 very tradable rallies before we finally get there. So my advice is again trade the rally, and use the gain to purchase bonds, or houses by cash (I know, but rental income is still cool and as long as I can hold my real estate property, I don't care about depreciation). I did that the last two years, and am planning to do it again soon, and also late in the fall when I believe our beloved NAZ and CSCO will be around 1000 and 10 respectively. I guess that the next rally should happen around DOW 6800-7000. Should be very tradable and bring DOW to close to 8k. Sell everything and wait for the usual weakness in the fall. good luck, larry

To: RetiredNow who wrote (63227)	3/12/2003 8:36:38 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

My point mindmeld is that your retirement planning may be aggressive. 7% growth in equity prices would be reasonable if they started at a fair price, grew at 7% per year and thus doubled over the next 10 years. However, if they are over-priced by a factor of two, then every dollar you invest delivers 0% rate of return over the next decade. Which means if you are 66% stocks and 33% bonds that your bond portfolio has to deliver 21% returns. Which is junkier than junk. If you are 66% bonds and 33% stocks you still need 10.5% returns. Still junk. You've got lots of junk? John