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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (81646)	3/12/2003 11:59:13 PM
From: paul_philp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I was thinking about the question of France in some detail today. I think Saffire, den Beste and the other 'secrets in the closet' crowd are wrong. The truth is that everyone has stinkypoo hiding in their Iraq closet. If France was really concerned about being discovered the right strategy would be to confess quietly and work extra hard to make the war a success. Yes, France does have stuff to be embarrassed about in their recent past. Who cares? The stakes are so much larger than a little embarrassment. The truth is right in front of our eyes and it is important to notice that it is hard to see. The world is changing so much so fast that our minds betray us. The key to understanding France is George Bush's speech to the UN on September 12. He said, "We are going to attack Iraq, with or without the UN. The UN must decided if it wants to be part of the action." (my paraphrase) The very moment he said it the UN was dead. Right or wrong Bush killed the UN on September 12 and there is no putting it back together again (as it was). American power is to be the new organizing principal of the world from Sept 12 on. After the Bush speech, France knew two things. First, Bush was going to take care of the problem of Iraq. France didn't have to worry that it's UNSC vote would have a material impact on that situation. Second, in the emerging world order, France was not a tier-1 player in the American orbit but Britain is tier-1. In that light, France's actions make complete sense. A rational response to America asserting it's unchecked role as superpower is to build a coalition that has leverage and strength. It would make no sense for France to idly sit by and watch England become a founding member of the world organizing power. France is using it's UNSC vote to form a coalition to balance American power and to prevent Britain from becoming the new center of Europe. Once France has made this clear, their is very little downside for Russia and China to play along without committing either way. The UN is dead, kaput, finito. It was one of the most important things I thought needed to happen post 9-11 and I didn't even recognize it when it happened. The drama from September 12 until now was all about building a military presence in the Middle East, much bigger than what the War on Iraq needs, without drawing too much attention to it. Welcome to the New World Order - ready or not. Paul