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Strategies & Market Trends : Galapagos Islands -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: bramble88 who wrote (32200)3/13/2003 10:33:07 AM
From: PuddleGlum  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57110
 
When you say your signals last weeks to months, do you mean a buy indicates an up move that keeps going up for that long? In terms of a week and a half or so, we have opex coming up, so anything is possible.

Usually this is true, that the up or down move will continue for weeks or months. But I currently don't have much of a way to tell the duration of a move. October 1998 was a textbook bottom, and January 2003 (following on the heels of a Nov. sell signal as it did) was a classic topping structure. In fact, the best reason I have for doubting yesterday's signal is because of the strength of the preceding sell signals. They look like they have some staying power.

Op ex has occurred some 60 times over the course of the data that I have, and since VIX is central to my system I think that op ex is accounted for.

-pg

edit: Actually, Jorj's convictions are probably the best reasons for doubting yesterday's signals, as I think most folks here will agree.