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Strategies & Market Trends : World Outlook -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1465)	3/14/2003 11:39:50 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 48732

As the U.S. continues to focus on war in Iraq, the danger of conflict in North Korea increases By Murray Hiebert, Washington United States President George W. Bush's showdown with Iraq could have far-reaching consequences for how the world deals with North Korea's steadily escalating threat to restart its nuclear weapons programme. With the U.S. focused on preparing for war against Iraq, Washington anticipates a continuing series of provocations from Pyongyang. And hawks and doves alike are suggesting that as the North Korean crisis persists the risk of military confrontation rises and the force of diplomacy could weaken. Late last year North Korea admitted it was enriching uranium and began taking action to reactivate a nuclear reactor. Since then it has kept the flame of crisis burning. On March 2, four North Korean MiG fighters intercepted a U.S. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft in international airspace over the Sea of Japan; a U.S. defence official says the North Koreans signalled to the U.S. pilot to land in North Korea. The U.S. aircraft returned to base in Japan. Then, on March 10, North Korea test-fired a short-range missile into the Sea of Japan. Opposition Democrats have stepped up their charges that the Bush administration is allowing the threat posed by North Korea to spin out of control. They say that North Korea could have begun producing plutonium for bombs by the time the U.S. is ready to face Pyongyang. Bush administration officials say they plan to confront North Korea after Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq has been toppled. "Presumably when Iraq is behind us [North Korea] will be the No. 1 priority," says a senior administration official. Standing up to Iraq "will have demonstrated U.S. willingness to stand down weapons of mass destruction threats," he says. "We'll have more diplomatic leverage after Iraq." Meanwhile, U.S. officials believe that Pyongyang will continue carefully calibrating its moves to pressure them into bilateral talks to garner security guarantees and economic assistance. "Five or six days into Iraq, North Korea will escalate again," says another administration official. "We're ready for those contingencies," he says, referring to recent Pentagon decisions to send 24 bombers to Guam and to resume reconnaissance flights escorted by U.S. fighters. Some analysts say that the recent military steps taken by North Korea and the U.S. increase the risk of an armed clash. "The escalating tension between the two sides could bring about a possible accidental collision, which could lead to serious military conflicts," says North Korea analyst Park Hyeong Jung of the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul. Challenges at the UN Security Council Still, some administration officials are convinced that North Korea's continuing provocative behaviour will drive other countries, including China and South Korea, to support United Nations sanctions against Pyongyang. "Part of our strategy is that the more North Korea continues to escalate, the closer China comes to our position," says a U.S. official who supports "regime transformation" in Pyongyang. But the acrimonious fissures that have divided the United Nations Security Council over how to deal with Iraq may make it more difficult for the international body to deal with North Korea's nuclear crisis. "Our bona fides have been undercut," says a congressional foreign-policy analyst critical of the Bush administration's handling of Iraq in the UN. "They're so annoyed," he says of Security Council members, "why should they play on North Korea?" The senior Bush administration official says if North Korea starts producing plutonium it will make the Security Council even stronger. Restarting the reprocessing "will bring greater isolation and some Security Council action moving towards punitive action." In early March, a group of Democratic Senate leaders and former Clinton administration officials called for immediate talks with Pyongyang to prevent North Korea from veering toward the "serial production" of nuclear weapons. Former Clinton administration Defence Secretary William Perry warned that "the proposed policy of isolation--isolation and containment--will not work . . . We can hardly isolate North Korea more than they are already isolated." So what more could the U.S. do? So far, Bush has rejected bilateral talks with Pyongyang. In early March, he warned for the first time that if U.S. policies on North Korea "don't work diplomatically, they'll have to work militarily." Kim Jung Min in Seoul contributed to this article.