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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JohnM who wrote (82205)	3/14/2003 8:36:19 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

John; thanks. I have some conjecture to add. I actually read much here regularly and have mentioned the thread on my blog, as well. It's just I feel chatty today. This is my best guess of what's actually happening/going to happen: 1) The committed allied leaders meeting this Sunday are not going to be discussing UN plans. They are finalizing war plans. There may be no Monday vote. If there is, I would look for an attempt at a dramatic speech beforehand, by Powell or Bush, but this course is doubtful because going against a formal vote can only intensify the hard feelings. 2) The dilemma is getting UN inspectors to safety. Were they out, this would begin Sunday evening. As things are, the latest window for the start is, I believe, Tuesday night. 3) All the talk of Shock & Awe and MOAB is psyOp stuff, imo. We know Hussein's plans, to a degree: the Baghdad moat, oil well fires, RG troops midst civilian centers, urban warfare, etc. An air war can't do the job. It also can't track Hussein. Shock & Awe will only increase the risk of civilian deaths. 4) Yet the psych-out can only work with some aerial bombardment at the outset. 5) I bet special op forces are already there, in small numbers, hidden among sympathizers. I look for boots on the ground quickly, perhaps an hour after the bombardment begins, perhaps in a massive blitzkrieg move. The microwave bomb that fries communications throughout the country will be critical to this. The goal will be to gain control of Baghdad in 48-72 hours. No matter if the rest of Iraq takes a few weeks to mop-up; accomplishing this quickly amounts to an immediate victory. 6) Of course, Hussein will order the use of what he has: chemicals. But will his generals do it? The great unknown. 7) The best indicators of all this to begin will not be Baghdad movements. Watch the Israeli army's actions around Palestinian cities for the sign. 8) Any concentrations or exposed positions of the RG will get the real Shock and Awe. 9) The Baghdad action will see some large concentrations of RG, with civilian hostages, surrounded and cut off from communications. The only way this can be avoided is if they are completely dispersed, in the living quarters of half the citizens. 10) Uprisings in other Arab nations will be quickly suppressed. Should all this occur with few hitches, it will look like the work of geniuses. My best guess says Monday night till Thursday morning will be when this critical phase will occur and with luck it could all be over that quickly. I would welcome such a happy best-case outcome. The sole downside of that would be a more arrogant foreign policy afterwards. I base my guesswork on the eagerness that exists in the administration. My gut tells me they believe they can pull off a one-week war. Another unknown variable is whether a free againt AQ cell, or several, attack US civilians, with the strongest odds for an attack right after victory. But what do I know? Nada; this is all the instincts of a professional civilian.