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To: AllansAlias who wrote (68574)	3/15/2003 12:27:14 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

So We See SPX 950 Before We See SPX 750?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68574)	3/15/2003 12:51:14 PM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I read that recent put/call ratios have been neutral. VIX has not reached any serious extremes at this latest bottom. In fact, EWI noted that since last summer every time SPX was testing the 800 area, VIX has been making a lower peak. It is as if we got used to the current lower range… and not afraid of such levels anymore. The charts are interpretable in a way that we made 5 waves down since the top in December. Right now, after the 3 day rally, we are not too far from completing one of the standard 38.6 – 62.8% retracements. If (IF) this rally is Shack’s “brother leg” to a rally a couple of weeks ago, than all we need is a one five wave impulse up. In that case there may not even be a move up which would “match” the current one. A rally before a war is a perfect setup for selling the news. On the real-life front, moreover, there are still plenty of excesses… debt, real estate prices – not much of it has been worked out. I know a woman who worked for many years in a neighborhood discount clothing store. The building was sold, and the new owner wanted to increase the rent from 5000 to $11.000 a month. How much discount clothing has to be sold to pay such a rent? The store is out of business, and she is out of a job. IMO, the new owner will soon be lucky to get 3 grand. Prices are so high that I can hardly imagine how anyone can start just about any legitimate business without being suffocated by the overhead.

To: AllansAlias who wrote (68574)	3/15/2003 2:35:23 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

While I see a possibility for that scenario I don't buy it. The move in the DOW off the Dec 2 high is 5 waves (so far) and has channeled nicely. Actually we have yet to even break the down channels in tech, the SPX or the DOW and we recoiled pretty forcefully from the top of the DOW channel giving us that toppy tail on the daily chart Friday. We may break the channel but for now as I have said, the only trade is to short the top of the channel. The notable index which looks bullish to me is Smelly, that was a pretty nice breakout Thursday.