To: robert b furman who wrote (7828 ) 3/15/2003 1:24:58 PM From: Rich1 Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 207042 Home Get IBD (2 Free Weeks!) IBD Subscribe/Renew IBD WebLink Today In IBD The Big Picture The Real Most Active Investor's Corner Investor's Corner Archives IBD's Top 10 To The Point Feature Story Internet & Technology The New America The Smart Investor Mutual Funds & Personal Finance Leaders & Success Issues & Insights Managing A Successful Company Funds Under $125 Mil IBD Calendar FAQ's The Big Picture Monday, March 17, 2003 Heeding The Market: How "The Big Picture" column recognized the signs of weakness as the bear market began. Printer version -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reprints and webprints Stocks Take Breather In Lower Volume BY CHRIS GESSEL INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY Stocks tried to extend the party Friday. But they settled for mixed gains in lower volume, a fine enough follow-up to Thursday's powerful advance. Traders seemed unwilling to make more bullish bets going into the weekend. The diplomatic showdown over Iraq inched forward. The U.S., Britain and Spain were to hold an emergency summit Sunday in the Azores in perhaps a final effort to win over the U.N. Security Council. The Dow industrials led the market higher in the morning. The blue chip average climbed as much as 1.4%. NYSE volume was running about 20% heavier. But the momentum petered out around 11:30 a.m. Eastern time. To the market's credit, stocks didn't collapse. Volume eased as the major indexes pulled back and traded sideways throughout the afternoon. The Dow finished on top with a 0.5% gain. The Nasdaq slipped less than a half-point. The tech-heavy index sits just beneath its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. A sustained rally would push it comfortably above these key price lines. The S&P 500 added 0.2%. The small-cap S&P 600 edged up slightly, but essentially closed flat. The restrained performance in quieter volume left the market's three-day attempted rally in good shape. Another surge of 2% or more in heavier volume sometime this week and into the next would raise your confidence in this rally. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It seems unlikely the stock market can go too far if Iraq remains unresolved. But if leading stocks can successfully break out of bases and head higher, why argue with the market? The early evidence is encouraging. Stocks that broke out Thursday and Friday looked good. There weren't any dramatic failures to speak of. Medical stocks are making an early move for the market's leadership. Biomet (BMET) followed through strongly in the morning on the prior day's breakout. The maker of knee and hip replacements pulled back with the rest of the market, but still closed up 0.52 at 31.59. Trading volume rolled in 43% above average. Other strong moves in the medical sector included Zimmer Holdings, (ZMH) another orthopedic device maker. Zimmer gapped up to a high, gaining 2.04 to 46.69. Hi-Tech Pharmacal (HITK) spiked above its 50-day moving average, jumping 2.15 to 17.56 in heavy trading. It was the first time the generic drug maker closed over its intermediate-term price line since the stock knifed below it on Feb. 10. Generic drug maker Eon Labs (ELAB) had trouble on Thursday. It reversed in the afternoon after breaking out in the morning. On Friday, Eon picked up 0.29 to 24.29, closing above its pivot, or buy, point of 24.10. Still, the stock didn't get much traction from volume that remained twice as heavy as normal. Other breakouts to watch include Jacobs Engineering, (JEC) Starbucks, (SBUX) wireless services firm Boston Communications, (BCGI) Expedia (EXPE) and chipmaker OmniVision Technologies. (OVTI) Leading stocks tell you a lot about the market's health. 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