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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - with a K who wrote (390)	3/15/2003 3:16:18 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

I must have used a bit more aggressive numbers than you did, because I got it in the hold zone, too, but not by much. Used 13% growth, below the historical, outlied the two high PEs to get a PE of 31/2 and kept that, since it's been running that PE level for years at ths same growth rate, so while I don't usually use a PE that high, I did here. Used a low of 17.7 for reasons which frankly I can't remember at the moment but with a 2001 low of 24 and a last 12 months low of 21.75 that looked as though it gave a reasonable cushion. Got a high price of 54 and a buy (using 25-50-25) up to 26.8. Current price when I reported was 29.23. We put in a buy order at 26.5. If it drops to that, we'll fill. If not, there are other fish in the sea. I agree it's not likely to be a barn burner. But I think it is beautifully managed, it's certainly a growth industry as the population ages and especially as the population is more inclined to look for medicine not only to keep us alive but to keep us active and healthy and able to go on Elderhostel trips and treks around the globe. I think it will be a fairly safe steady grower to provide a floor for the more aggressive stocks we buy.