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To: Perspective who wrote (228509)	3/17/2003 12:00:32 PM
From: yard_man	Respond to of 436258

naw -- for the short term reaper is right -- temporary selloff in bonds at this point -- watch the 3.90 level -- methinks we'll turn back down to 3.6 or so before breaking that level Higher yields are great for wall street only for a few days -- yields back up much and it all goes to heck.

To: Perspective who wrote (228509)	3/17/2003 12:26:08 PM
From: reaper	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

bc, i'm sure i'm becomming a broken record at this point, but IMHO if you are looking for HIGHER rates to be the sign of the death of the housing bubble you are IMO looking in the wrong place. the busting of the housing bubble will be accompanied by LOWER rates (much to everyone's surprise <g>) as those low rates will be indicative of a stagnant/contracting economy with falling wages. in the meantime, banks and other financial institutions have a carp-load of capital to put to work (customer deposits and repo financing). even if rates back up a little mortgage spreads will contract further as banks fight for volume, which will keep mortgage rates low. i know Bill Gross doesn't think mortgage spreads can go any lower (and i was tempted to agree with him at the time) but don't forget / underestimate the ability of bankers to misread / f' up every market in which they get involved. Cheers