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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (43796)	3/17/2003 3:38:42 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 50167

Saddam is not suicidal; he kills but tries his best not to be cornered or become a sacrificial lamb, knowing form the past history he alike many others in ME are firm believers of politics of diminishing returns, sometime they become victim of global media and definitely this time he has, he thought French will not allow Americans to overrule UN, he underestimated like he did with James Baker in 1991 the resolve. I am sure that he and his cohorts were carried away by the global ‘Peaceniks’ demonstrations little did they realise that democracies don’t need these mandates sometime once leaders are invested with mandate every four years they exercise them with best results. Like OBL he will like to disappear and live in cave, all his money that he has collected the fast cars his sons like and palaces that he likes to maintain are not easy ticket items, the attachment to luxury is one greatest sign of weakness and this also indicates he would like to partake the luxuries much more than impending fall of Baghdad. The orgy of blood that these bunch of gangsters can unleash without any implication are suggestive that they are coward, they will use his soldiers as cannon fodder but once coalition of willing forces reach Al-Nasseriyah (this is the point where ‘hail Mary pass’ backed off last time in 1990) he will relinquish Baghdad, he may find comfort in East or may be in Syria. A living Saddam may become a greater hero of Islam, he will weigh this option well.. On scale of possible outcome I would think.. 1. He is overthrown in next 48 hours probability 30%. The GOC’s of the Iraqi Army will fall in place one by one; Baghdad will be last to fall as Saddam sees the intensity of the surrender. 2. He is overthrown once Basra-Nasseriah is taken over probability is as high 70% 3. The probability of coalition outside the gates of Baghdad and house-to-house conflict with Saddam and Qusay stranded in Baghdad is almost negligible, if that happens Saddam would be hero. However, he would not be doing what he has been so far if he had the courage ot see the conditions of Iraqis, for him Iraqi nation are pawns on a chess board. That strength of character and seeing the last stand is not for him, he is not cut for that kind of role he is a homicidal but not sacrificial. Leaders who lead by front do not gas their own people.