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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Perspective who wrote (68751)	3/17/2003 1:46:20 PM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I love the opportunity to debate. I don't mean for it to be anything more than arguing one side of the debate. You are one of the best contributors on SI. Goodness knows there are not many left. I understand better what you mean now. Still, I would say to you that such a strategy would have whipped you about in the Nikkei chart for many years. Unless one has the timeframe of decades, then one has to be prepared for phases of the bear that end up not making any net progress for many months or years. Sure the trend is down, but if it goes up/sideways for years before it resumes down, then it is little help to be trading the trend. Even if one only wants to trade short, what the hell does one do if the market pops 15%. If that doesn't take one out of one's position, then one has no respect for stops. Fundamentals have nothing to do with this market, except in timeframes that are impossible to trade. They won't mean anything for years yet, until the bear is over. Poor fundamentals are of little solace when your puts are down 75% 'cause you stepped in front of a correction or your money is tied up for many months going nowhere in a range-bound market. All mho Bob.

To: Perspective who wrote (68751)	3/17/2003 1:54:12 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

bobcor, about being flat since October Why didn't you short the December decline? Technicals and fundamentals certainly lined up then. I certainly respect your well reasoned and educated LT opinions, but I must say that I feel you're missing half the action by not taking advantage of bear market rallies.I know for a fact that everyone else on this board feels trepidation about going long in bear markets,(especially with the February whipsaws) but being technically minded, we often feel compelled to do what the charts tell us, and if they say up then we position accordingly, even if it is for a short time. You concerns about what would happen if you're sidelined due to an injury are well taken, but we all have that concern, and that's what stops are for.

To: Perspective who wrote (68751)	3/17/2003 10:18:52 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

My belief is that the soundest* market strategy involves a solid understanding of both technicals and fundamentals, and only holding positions when the two line up.* Prechter and others find that price action tends to LEAD fundamentals, rather than follow or coincide with them. Indeed, the rebound in the DOW in 1932 occurred way before the economy started showing strength. The problem here is that the fundamentals and the technicals will probably not be aligned when an important bottom does occur. On the other hand, waiting for the long-term trend to turn clearly bullish may also be expensive for the bears. The excesses of the great Bull may take a very long time to work themselves out. In a sense, we will probably see several bear markets before that happens. If Prechter is right, and this Bear is indeed a Wave 4 of a Grand Supercycle degree, it may unfold as a triangle, which will take several decades. Inside such a large structure there will be several moves which would fully qualify as “long term” bears and bulls. Basically, holding long-term positions and hedge them for the intermediate term amounts to trading the intermediate term. Perhaps it makes sense to EXPECT that there will be “countretrend” bull moves which will last for many months – and maybe even years. It may make sense to ride them, rather than merely hedge them, even with an understanding that there may still be “something rotten in Denmark”