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To: steve from ihub who wrote (9017)	3/18/2003 10:28:55 PM
From: lifeisgood	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

I strongly disagree that many predicted this turn I know of not one professional money manager or forecaster who did not predict this "war rally". Can you name any? I include permabulls (Ruhkeyser crowd) and permabears (Fleckenstein, Byron Wein). best... LIG

To: steve from ihub who wrote (9017)	3/18/2003 10:44:39 PM
From: KevinThompson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

"...but I strongly disagree that many predicted this turn. it came as a surprise to almost all on these threads" Not really. I recall hearing weeks ago traders interviewed on the exchange floors on Bloomberg and from other sources that a "war rally" is absolutely expected. But there was a surprise. It came much sooner than expected, and it also ran much higher than expected for being this early. I estimate that this early, sharp rise is attributable to many traders wanting to "jump-in" and position themselves ahead of the crowd rather than wait; knowing what happened in the market the last time we invaded IRAQ. Additionally, we were very technically oversold mid last week. So we were ripe for it. However, I think this pre-war rally will have unintended consequences that will surprise many. It is shaping up to be a "sell on the news" scenario. Likely to get another good pop going in, but I would not be at all surprised to see a real sell-off once the campaign gets started. There are just too many that jumped in too soon for this to continue for too long. -JMO