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To: KevinThompson who wrote (9023)	3/18/2003 11:18:32 PM
From: steve from ihub	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10157

yes i would agree many were expecting a war rally. at the time it started though, da masses were looking down at oct lows and were surprised big time holding shorts or in cash. The timing and the levels it started from was the shocker. we had a nice reversal on wed and a monster follow thru day on trs that traders doubted all over the place. few jumping in as they expect it to reverse and sell off. fri we trade sideways and folks were shorting left and right. not a lot of bullish folks buying. monday comes and wham up and away we went again after a wee bit of selling in am. we rose to the sky like jack in the been stalk. today no giveback again. why do i remember all this in such detail. cause i did predict the rally (just not this far this fast!!!!) and was long. i thorougly enjoyed reading multiple threads and seeing all the bulls that doubted this move. I was in the same boat in the october ramp and will do my best to never let that happen again. i saw the shorts screaming like a lobster going into a pot. The amazing thing is the majority still doubts it. We already hit my first nas target at 1400. spx hasnt made it to its first target of 875 yet but it should. Imo we have another few weeks of up, but the bulk is in and i am attempting to play it short for a partial retrace as i went short myself at last nights close. Who knows maybe this beast runs to 1104 ndx wed before pulling back. i hope not, but this has defied logic all the way so far. why stop now. i fully intend to short the crap out of this as long term i wear a bear suit. but for approx the next two weeks, i got the horns on and will actively buy dips. steve

To: KevinThompson who wrote (9023)	3/18/2003 11:50:20 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10157

Sooner and higher than expected are the key words. And I also agree about everyone jumping in all at once in an attempt not to miss it. It seems that the the further out in time we go, the more panic buying seems to come in sharp and fast jumps, seemingly out of nowhere. Clearly a sign that the bear is still ongoing. A bear market of this degree will not end until most tire of the market and won't be quite as eager to jump in to "catch the next train". Psychologically speaking this is a bullish mindset and still a failure to recognize a market for what it is. We have yet to have capitulation in the markets which is the true event that breaks the back of the investor. But even after that we should have more downside to finish the bear but with the noticable difference that there will be an absence of those fast and sharp buying spikes. When that happens, you know the end is probably closer at hand. Until then, these are bear market rallies are nothing more than that and yes, they will be difficult to catch and judge. That is the point of a counter trend, just like in a bull market where the drops generally were fast and sharp as well, designed to shove as many bulls as possible off the train so it doesn't get overloaded. We are witnessing the same phenomenon in reverse and gradually the rallies will become shorter and shorter in duration until we do reach that capitulation point. The rally out of the Sept 2002 low lasted about 130 trading days before an official top was put in and a trend reversal came. The one out of the October low was exactly half at 65 trading days. The next significant rally will be even less than that. This rally out of the low fits all the characteristics of a bear rally and will soon be ending. Any rally where the masses monkey pile in right from the start in the first few days so they don't miss anything will terninate and lead to a new low.