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To: Tomas who wrote (20509)	3/20/2003 6:18:00 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206089

Energy Analyst Games-Thomas: Crude Oil, OPEC Production Sydney, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Simon Games-Thomas, an independent energy analyst, talks with Bloomberg's Howard Liberman and June Grasso via telephone about the outlook for the U.S.-led war in Iraq, crude oil prices and oil production and storage by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. 01:48 Outlook for oil prices, OPEC production and storage 01:33 Potential impact of U.S. bombing of Iraq on oil fields 02:22 Outlook for the war in Mideast, crude oil price, fair value Running time 5:43 media5.bloomberg.com:443/cgi-bin/getavfile.cgi?A=9736882 ______________________________________________________________ Independent Energy Analyst Games-Thomas Comments on Oil Prices By Angela Macdonald-Smith Sydney, March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Simon Games-Thomas, an independent oil analyst in Sydney, comments on oil prices and the outlook for oil as the U.S. starts a military attack against Iraq. On the fall of crude-oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange, which fell $1.24, or 4.2 percent, in after-hours trading to $28.64 a barrel at 2:57 p.m. Sydney time: ``There's just this overwhelming assumption that it's going to be a very easy victory. The next couple of days will give a much clearer indication of what's going to happen. ``I think that $30, $31 is really fair value given the fundamentals, but I think that unless the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries acts quickly fair value will drop very quickly to around $26. I think that OPEC is going to have to cut back production. ``If the war goes off without a hitch and it's all over in a couple of days and the oilfields don't get blown up or anything like that then I think there's going to be too much oil around. ``There's a lot of non-regulatory storage around. I think that OPEC has been pumping more steadily for the last few months, has put it into tanks or into tankers and it's waiting to be shifted. And it will get put into the market whether or not there's a hiccup with the war. ``I think there's a real risk of an oversupply in the event that war is quick fast and easy. And if not, I think if they do blow up the oilfields, there'll be a very, very savage rally because the market is really pricing in a complete victory.''

To: Tomas who wrote (20509)	3/26/2003 11:07:19 AM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 206089

DoE vs API (million barrels) DoE API Expectations (Bloomberg survey) Crude +3.7 -0.4 +1.8 Gasoline -2.1 -2.0 +0.2 Distillates +2.3 +1.8 +0.7 ----------------------------------------- Total +3.9 -0.6 +2.7 Utilization -0.3 +0.2 +0.6 % 91.0 90.1 Imports: DoE API Crude +1.0 +1.2 Products +0.5 +0.6 Inventories: DoE API Crude Oil: 273,900 271,779 Gasoline: 199,000 199,033 Distillates: 99,500 103,329 Changes from last year (API): Crude oil: -43,704 = -13.9% Gasoline: -1,999 = -2.9% Distillates: -20,231 = -16.4%