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To: Tomas who wrote (20844)	3/26/2003 12:11:03 PM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 206089

Not exactly a "wall of oil".

To: Tomas who wrote (20844)	3/26/2003 6:41:04 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206089

Middle East's shifting sands - The US-led war with Iraq threatens a new era of political insta- bility in the region that could open up a Pandora's Box of trouble for Western oil companies Upstream, March 21-27 issue By Vahe Petrossian International oil companies can expect a generally more difficult working environment in the Middle East when US-led forces settle the fate of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. In some oil producing countries, such as in Iraq itself, there may even be promising new opportunities, but the picture is otherwise one of increased uncertainty and higher risk. Throughout the Persian Gulf, and the wider Arab world, Western oil companies and their staff will have to exercise caution no matter how friendly official government attitudes might be. Iran, that one-time bastion of anti-Western sentiment, may offer one of the safest environments for the industry. Despite appearances, most Iranians have rid themselves of the anti-US and anti-Western obsession that marked the 1979 Islamic revolution and may now become more concerned with ensuring they do not lose out on outside investment. When and if a post-Saddam Iraq embarks on a reconstruction of its crippled oil sector, neighbouring Iran will be under increasing pressure to liberalise the rules of the game -- especially as defined under the much-criticised buy-back formula designed for foreign investors. In the coming years, the main concern for the oil industry in the Middle East will be over retaliatory acts and terrorist attacks on Western oil operations. Even as US President George W. Bush was issuing his ultimatum to Iraq's leader early this week, Saudi Interior Minister Prince Nayef was warning domestic militants against exploiting anger at US actions as a pretext to stage attacks in the kingdom. The Saudi government was opposed to any attack against fellow Muslims in Iraq but was powerless to prevent a war, the minister in charge of internal security explained. Muslim militants should not think this is an opportunity to "put their interests before that of the country", he warned. Saudi Arabia -- which, as the world's leading crude exporter has the biggest Western presence -- has every reason to worry. US and other companies operating there are entering what can best be described as unknown territory as of this week. Saudi Arabia was home to most of the September 11th hijackers. It has also been home to large numbers of US troops since the first Gulf War in 1991 -- a presence that secured the country against external threats while provoking internal nationalist-religious animosity. Indeed, the notorious Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda followers based in Afghanistan were said to be motivated largely by the US military presence in Saudi Arabia. Despite tight security controls in Saudi Arabia, there have been five attacks against Western targets since 2000. The events in neighbouring Iraq are helping to highlight the contradictions of a deeply traditionalist country putting itself through a forced modernisation-cum-Westernisation. In Kuwait, also, there has been a spate of attacks, mainly against US targets, since last year. Most of the incidents have involved apparently uncoordinated gun attacks against US soldiers. Security elsewhere among Arab oil producing countries is also causing some concern. In Yemen, where there have been attacks in the past, an American, a Canadian and a Yemeni employed at a rig operated by Hunt Oil were killed this week by a gunman working for a local sub-contractor. Local authorities claimed the killer's motives were personal rather than political. In Iran, most Western embassies agree that security concerns are negligible. In Egypt,though, fears over rising anti-government and anti-Western sentiment were highlighted by President Hosni Mubarak telling his people this week that he and other Arab leaders had done everything possible and that an injudicious Saddam had brought a war on himself. In Iraq itself, whether the oilfields physically survive the military confrontation or not, oil companies working under a new administration seem unlikely to face threats to their personnel. The Iraqi population may not welcome a foreign presence, but neither has the regime of Saddam Hussein enjoyed popular support. If, however, a US-controlled administration were to remain in charge of Iraq for some years, fuelling nationalistic resentment, oil companies could well find themselves in a dangerous environment once more.

To: Tomas who wrote (20844)	4/2/2003 1:08:55 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206089

DoE vs API (million barrels) ................ DoE API Expectations (Bloomberg survey) Crude +6.8 +9.0 +2.1 Gasoline +1.7 +2.5 0 Distillates -1.6 -3.3 +1.1 ----------------------------------------- Total +6.9 +8.2 +3.2 _________________________________________ Imports: DoE API Crude +0.7 +0.1 Products -1.1 -0.6 __________________________________________ Inventories: DoE API Crude Oil: 280,700 280,790 Gasoline: 200,700 201,497 Distillates: 97,900 99,995 __________________________________________ Changes 12 months (DoE): Crude oil: -50,200 = -15.2% Gasoline: -13,300 = -6.2% Distillates: -26,000 = -21.0%