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Strategies & Market Trends : Disciplined Investing, especially the NAIC way -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: - with a K who wrote (400)	3/21/2003 7:08:34 PM
From: The Philosopher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 469

Emotionally it's hard to bet against MSFT, but if you believe in the SSG there are better opportunities out there. I did a quick update with 12% growth. I dropped the high PE down to 25 which is still a PEG of just over 2. Selecting a low of 20.1 (post split) which is fairly aggressive because that's this year's low gives a hold zone of 23.2 to 29.6. That puts it well into the hold zone. In addition to the factors you cited, there are two other things to consider. One is the possibility of anti-trust litigation in Europe, which is likely to be less forgiving than the Bush administration was. Two is the question whether, now that he's married and has one or two children and got $91 million in dividends this year, does Bill Gates still have the fire in his belly to keep devoting the energy and time to rapid growth of a company that large? Or does he want to do a Paul Allen, take his money, and have some fun with it while he's still young enough to and spend time with his family before he finds his daughter all grown up?