Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (86587)	3/26/2003 2:26:16 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

my comments on "road map": In order for this peace plan to happen, the Israelis, Palestinians, and Arab States would all have do things they will not do, unless forced to do. Gentle persuasion will not work, to get: 1. Israelis to stop settlement expansion 2. Palestinians to stop the Intifada 3. Arab States to stop funding the Intifada When President Bush needed access through Pakistan to attack Afghanistan, he leaned on the Pakistani government. He leaned hard, telling them that the U.S. army was going into Afghanistan no matter what, and the Pakistanis were going to get rolled over if they didn't help, or at least get out of the way. Bush told them the U.S. would overthrow governments who provided safe haven for Al Queda, and Pakistan was effectively shielding Al queda, if they didn't allow our army access. That's the level of committment, the level of pressure, which is going to be needed, if the "road map" is going to lead anywhere. Without it, everyone will make vague promises and change nothing. <As part of phase one, the "Palestinians immediately undertake an unconditional cessation of violence......As security improves, the Israeli army withdraws> So, the whole plan starts with the end of the Intifada. Israel is required to make no concessions, until that happens. Is this realistic? Arafat has neither the will, nor the power, to stop the Intifada. Even assuming he wanted to, he has lost control of large parts of the Occupied Territories, and is incapable of doing anything more than decreasing the rate of suicide bombers. So, somebody else has to enforce a ceasefire on Hamas and Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah and the "rejectionist" parts of the old PLO. It is possible to imagine an international force doing this. But this would be peace-making, not peace-keeping. I don't see anyone volunteering for this nasty job, and the Israelis wouldn't let them in, anyway. The only foreign army the Israelis would trust, to enter the Occupied Territories in sufficient force to pacify it, would be the U.S. army. And that is a total non-starter. So, that leaves the Israeli army, as the only candidate to achieve the first step of the "road map". How can Israel achieve this? Sharon is, currently, pursuing a purely military solution. There is no mixture of Carrots and Sticks, just pure Sticks. And Sticks combined with a total absence of Carrots, will produce in the Palestinians an endless willingness to suffer for their cause. The just-announced plan for an East Wall, to totally surround and subdivide the Arab areas, is meant to: 1. separate the Jewish and Muslim populations (this process will be completed when any hostile Muslims on the "wrong" side of the Wall are moved) 2. de facto annex about half the Occupied Territories, including all of Jerusalem, to Israel. 3. make a Palestinian State with contiguous borders, or any borders with other Arab states, impossible. If the Palestinians don't stop the Intifada, and give up the "right of return", then the "road map" will never happen, and Sharon will implement the above plan, over the next few years.