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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9196)	3/30/2003 11:59:23 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96005

I was thinking that an objective assessment of the state of the conduct of the war would be more valuable than TA at this time. NO! We have asked you many times to not make this into a political platform for your beliefs. Just in reading how you pose the questions it becomes clear to us your beliefs. You make a political statement just by posing questions. We have PLENTY of places to discuss politics. We have said from the get-go that this thread is NOT to become another political wasteland. Why do you continue to try to change this? If you want to talk to a few here that don't read the old AMAT thread (I removed it from my bookmarks as it is a useless political wasteland) then start a new discussion and ask those whom you value to join you there. Thanks for your consideration in this matter. Kirk out

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (9196)	3/30/2003 12:09:59 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96005

Cary, thanks for the link to the transcript. Reading it actually made me less pessimistic. The colonels sound honest in their assessments. This post is not OT because it is about the possible effect of the war on my semi investments. I will avoid political statements. Your thoughts about selling and waiting for resolution must be pursued - no matter what decision it leads to. Is TA irrelevant because of the war uncertainties? I think not because all investors feel that uncertainty and it affects their buy/sell decisions. I will not argue with those who think otherwise. Never being certain is something I have learned to live with. I think we will win the war. Hostile countries respect strength. The cost in lives, dollars and our standing in the world are the great uncertainties as are the market reactions to those costs. So far our market has not panicked over the stalled advance in Iraq. I think the longer, more costly war will delay non-defense IT investment even more. But I cannot predict whether that will lead to yet another significant drop in stock prices. I think the war duration will not be years but months. I expect the aftermath cleanup to take years. With a time horizon of a year or more I think upside stock price probability is much greater than downside. I have a bullish bias, though. Today I'm more afraid of missing the first 50% upside move while in cash, so I won't sell. Gottfried