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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (9205)	3/31/2003 1:00:58 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 96005

SOX, SPX: Hard to see any market rally, until Regime Change happens. Clearly, a lot of Americans, and a lot of soldiers, were expecting a repeat of Iraq1. This disappointment is not yet in stocks. In Iraq1, the time to buy stocks was right before the tanks rolled. It's different now, ng. Looks like we are going to have to reduce every urban area with foot soldiers, block by block. There is some hope of a collapse of Iraqi morale, and massive surrenders, but this hope is fading steadily. The implications are, there is little chance for a market rally, for months (not weeks). It's not just the direct effect the military/political uncertainties on stocks. It's the fact that consumer sentiment has nil hope of finding a bottom, till the fear of QuagmireInIraq resolves. And companies are not going to begin hiring, or raising their IT budgets, either. If consumers continue the recent new pattern of raising savings levels (income increases > spending increases), then demand for chips will be soft, capacity utilization will be flat-to-down, margins will be soft at semis. Hard to see any rebound in semi capex till those conditions change. TA: SPX: going back to last July, the last 3 bottoms were around 775. There is some soft support at 850. The early-March rally is clearly over, so now we seek the next intermediate-term bottom. SOX: the last 3 intermediate-term tops were at 393,348,337. See the pattern? Today, we ended the attempt to sustain a move over the 200DMA. No support at current levels, we need to retest the 2/03 bottom (258), or the 10/02 botom (209). I'm still 75% cash after a lot of selling 3/12-18, haven't done any re-buying yet, but I may get some ARMHY if it hits 2.4 today. Buy AMAT at 11, TXN at 14, others.