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To: TobagoJack who wrote (30442)	3/30/2003 11:09:37 PM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

Jay, 'The End' ALWAYS come irrespective of th outcome of the film. <<It could be that the danger (to world peace, economy and finances) is if Rumsfeld achieves campaign victory with shame while allowing Iraq a war defeat with honor.>> Good result as it will deter further adventures (Syria, Iran, N. Korea). <<The max danger could be if the US stops its attack after giving a good try.>> Good result since military will tone down their hawkish rethoric and their request for more money for defense budget. War costs probably capped at USD100billion. A boost for the UN and old Europe. Good for re-building alliances as a wing-clipped US will be more accommodating. <<The super max danger could be if the US tries occupation without nation-building success.>> This is total and absolute Fuck Up. High death toll. Costs will spirall out of control. Israelization of Iraq. Middle East arms race. Nuclear Bomb building will get support from public opinion all over the world. Three things to keep in mind: 1) A non-win situation has always the total fuck as a most probable outcome. 2) To avoid an outcome that leads to a wing-clipped US they most likely risk total fuck up. 3) And there's Murphy's Law...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (30442)	3/31/2003 12:15:31 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 74559

South Korea shows the way. This is how those things should be dealt with. S. Korea -which is on the line of fire- needs to build bridges. Integrated regional interests and you get less trouble. US don't need globalization? Well, the rest fo the world sees it a the way to surviev peacefully. Trading nations are vey little war-like. North Korea to issue bonds in 'sign of reform' By Andrew Ward in Seoul Published: March 28 2003 17:40 \| Last Updated: March 28 2003 17:40 North Korea plans to issue its first government bonds for 50 years, in what some analysts say could be the first step towards restructuring the communist country's financial system. The move is the latest in a series of economic experiments by North Korea in recent months, raising hopes that the world's most rigid command economy could be moving towards a market system. news.ft.com Who profits from adventures? Who? The military caste with an eye on USD410 billion every year. One can't rely on this -should I say Forrestal aircraft carrier- to "protect" you. Only economic regional community of interests will garantee peace. S.Korea to Push Gas-For-Peace Deal with North Sun March 30, 2003 09:33 PM ET SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea has proposed gas be piped from Russia to energy-starved North Korea in return for a verifiable end to its nuclear plans, the South's security chief told the Financial Times in an interview published on Monday. Ra Jong-yil, President Roh Moo-hyun's national security adviser, said the proposal was at an early stage and needed to be discussed with allies and North Korea. "Gas could be drawn from either Irkutsk (Siberia) or Sakhalin (east Russia)," the Financial Times quoted Ra as saying. Ra, who is scheduled to visit China and Russia this week, said the gas could fuel thermal power stations and provide a peaceful alternative to Pyongyang's nuclear program, which Washington has said was aimed at producing atomic weapons. The Financial Times said such an international deal, to be revealed by the South Korean government, could halt North Korea's nuclear weapons program. There was no immediate comment from the South Korean presidential Blue House. The Financial Times quoted analysts as saying the multi-billion-dollar scheme could be funded by the United States, its allies and the private sector, in return for a verifiable scrapping of nuclear activities. The pipeline would continue to South Korea to make the scheme more viable, the newspaper said. Russia, which shares a short border with North Korea, is already in talks with China and South Korea on a pipeline from Siberia's Kovykta gas field to China and undersea to the South, but not yet to the North. A gas-for-peace deal with North Korea would replace the failed 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the United States and its allies supplied North Korea with heavy fuel oil and agreed to build two proliferation-resistant nuclear reactors. In return, North Korea promised to halt its nuclear weapons program. Last October, Washington accused the North of running a parallel secret program aimed at creating weapons-grade plutonium. The North has since restarted a small reactor which it says is to produce electricity, but the United States says the reactor is too small to supply power to the country's creaking grid.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (30442)	3/31/2003 12:36:04 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

SARS scare is overblown. Jay, fear is the ultimate motivator. When in fear people stop arguing or thinking rationally. There is in fact a virus more nasty than the usual ones around here. The truth on how much virulent than the garden variety ones this one will only be known in about three months. Here is my take. Knowing that Singapore and HK are swarming with foreign expats: 1) A company full of costly expats with contracts expiring, say, December 31st, 2003, finds a way to get rid of them without breaching their contracts by claiming Force Majeure and use this virus scare to quarantine a few, after the HR dept. bombs them regulalry with precautions and advices. 2) Governments -being who they are- love to use an unexpected level of fear to divert the people's attention to a foreign threat. Quite popular in a Bust and recessionary times. See, this virus fits the bill nicely. Take off your mask. Open that window overlooking the sea down there, take a deep breath and relax :-)