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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Night Trader who wrote (30623)	4/2/2003 7:55:58 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

I've read that piece by Fumento every time a serious discussion of SARS gets started. I think he's wrong about the death rate from the Spanish Influenza outbreak in 1919. It wasn't 30% in the US, it was 3%-4%, like SARS, but there were no ventilators then. SARS has a 4% death rate for people on ventilators. US patients are getting ventilators, ribavarin and interferon, but what about the Third World? Or the Second World, for that matter? People who die of SARS have hemorrhages in their lungs. Ordinary influenza doesn't cause hemorrhages in the lungs. But then, ordinary influenza only kills .1%. "Don't panic" is good advice, but "don't worry" isn't.

To: Night Trader who wrote (30623)	4/2/2003 1:13:06 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

Martin, I think an infection which has not been shown to have limited prospects for propagation and which kills probably 6% of those afflicted and leaves the others with scars in their lungs and something like 2 weeks of serious illness is a very big deal. Until we see a decline in the number of infections, we are still losing and it might be that a billion or 2 billion people end up infected before it runs out of infection channels. That would mean perhaps 500 million dead people and a lot of suffering before it fizzles out. Message 18787994 Fumento's wishful thinking isn't good enough. Our champion infectious diseases guy was killed. That's serious. That's like the Americans being defeated by Saddam and Islamic Jihad - not good for the rest of us. Mqurice