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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (89350)	4/2/2003 8:31:57 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Your predictions one year out sound reasonable, if everything works out according to the neocon plan, except for one: France does not depend on US capital. In fact nobody depends on US capital anymore. The US is a huge net borrower in the world today (to the tune of half a trillion a year) and foreigners are net owners of US assets, mostly financial. France in particular is a net capital exporter and has one of the highest savings rates in Europe, around 15%, more than 4 times our savings rate. Kyros

To: paul_philp who wrote (89350)	4/2/2003 8:37:45 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

50% reduction of American capital in France. France will be made an example of the other American power - economic power. Virtual withdrawl of US military from Germany. While the time frame is a little longerwave than a year, I think this fight between Europe and the US is fighting the last battle. In a 10 year time frame, China will probably be the major consumer of Mideast oil, outstripping the USA, and will be an important economic power to be reckoned with. Not the equal of the USA I don't think, but this is where the stakes will lie going forward a little longer than this 9/11 fallout period. For Iran, I don't particularly welcome the idea of any "revolution" there, it will be better if there is a continued moderate shift.

To: paul_philp who wrote (89350)	4/2/2003 9:11:27 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Sounds optimistic on India.... why will NK collapse? And yes, I've felt all along the Islamic Revolution in Iran was the 3rd biggest real threat to the US.... the first being Pakistan, the second being China. Do you think there's any risk marginalizing France? Wouldn't Russia/Germany/France/Iran pose a tough alliance against us?

To: paul_philp who wrote (89350)	4/2/2003 9:17:07 PM
From: kumar	Respond to of 281500

Peace agreement between Israel and Palestine OR Isreal fully occupies Gaza and West Bank after the failure of negotiations. Lets revisit this prediction in about 20 years.