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To: maceng2 who wrote (30708)	4/3/2003 10:02:54 AM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

(btw do you use this stuff in Economics these days ??) It's not used heavily as it seems it isn't very practical. But of course people are very aware of it. If a system is always chaotic it can usually be approximated by a stochastic system instead - i.e. one with random variables - or a statistical model - this is the case of the weather for example. It is hard to tell the two apart. If something may move from non-chaotic to chaotic behavior you can be aware of that and know how far you are from the chaotic regime. I don't know offhand of any practical examples in economics. The logistic equation is a simple model like that. I have used it to model growth of cattle and rangeland in an economic model of farming in Botswana. The estimated parameters are far from chaotic. The system shows cyclical fluctuations - this is very common in economics... Nonlinear dynamics of the sort like bifurcations has been discussed a lot in economics. The problem is that it is hard to detect that such behavior is likely if some of the potential paths have not been observed yet. So statistical estimates are likely to give biased results that result in a non-bifurcating model....

To: maceng2 who wrote (30708)	4/3/2003 10:06:55 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Hopefully large sections of the Republican Guard still exist yet have negotiated a ceasefire. Although military sources use words like "neutralize" and "defeated", it really means killing very large amounts of human beings. Such scenareos gave rise to the likes of Hitler and Pol Pot in the past, not a desirable solution over the longer term. It can mean destroy all their equipment too cut off their supplies, but probably a bit of both... Reports from Iraq are disturbing that the US troops may be overly trigger happy.... I always find it strange to hear accusations that suicide bombers or soldiers in civilian clothes (i.e. camoflage) are "cowardly" but firing cruise missiles and dropping bombs on soldiers from high flying or stealth aircraft is not......