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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: skinowski who wrote (89541)4/3/2003 11:25:31 AM
From: michael97123  Respond to of 281500
 
".....they may be more than happy to see the huge oppressive security apparatus get dismantled."

Skin,
Sheer Exhaustion! We here perhaps concentrate too much on democracy and not enough on individual freedom which will be an instant gift to these folks. Food, clothing, and shelter are equally important. Also stable interim government, hopefully run as quickly as possible by the iraqis themselves. Then we can talk about politics. mike



To: skinowski who wrote (89541)4/3/2003 11:34:25 AM
From: JohnM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
I think we are talking about different things, skin. It may be wise to "take a pause" but I don't think the dynamics of events will let it happen. Even as you and I type, the Pentagon and the State Department and Tony Blair and George Bush and the UN, are in serious conflict as to the immediate aftermath--who runs it. Not far behind that will be Iraqis who left during Saddam's regime, talking about self determination and using the language of democracy. That will be accompanied by the same language on the ground.

I have no idea how this all turns out. I'm simply arguing that their will be tensions over this from the getgo. I doubt it's "pause" time. Rather we move back to the political terrain. Both domestically and globally.

And, in the meantime, the US military will have to deal with the paradoxes of winning a hearts and minds campaign as an occupying force.



To: skinowski who wrote (89541)4/3/2003 11:36:32 AM
From: JohnM  Respond to of 281500
 
As for stability of the oil markets... here, both buyers and sellers have the same interest.

Sorry, I missed this last paragraph. If you mean OPEC and the buyers, I think that's true right now. The long term control issues are different, particularly if the combination of Wilsonian self determination and democracy descended on the ME. You can well expect some governments that are not sympathetic to US interests, meaning oil interests.