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Strategies & Market Trends : CFZ E-Wiggle Workspace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: the-phoenix who wrote (1284)	4/3/2003 12:25:14 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 41536

phoenix, I understand your frustration And everything you're saying is true, and you appear to have an accurate picture in mind. Perhaps it might be helpful to look at Onischka's chart from 4/1, though, where he shows the C of the triangle almost complete. wallstreet-online.de Others, like Keller for instance, didn't wait to call the trend change on Tuesday, but instead with Monday's low. Two different people, two different counts. stockcharts.com Or another way to look at it philosophically is that no matter what TA tools a person uses, sometimes it's not going to be good at indicating reversals. As far as how I played it (other than the GE wiggle than didn't pan out), I started to buy the downward trendline break on the 15-minute Dow.

To: the-phoenix who wrote (1284)	4/3/2003 8:35:59 PM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41536

First of all it would probably be a cold day in hell when I boot you. Your a solid trader and fellow junky. Trading is HARD...period. Frustration comes with the territory. From the questions you asked I felt that you could use a little study time and at the same time were questioning the methods value. It's the same as your gartley stuff. I don't know squat about those, and I know that I couldn't master the topic without reading the book. Asking a few questions across the net isn't enough. Then you need practice. You have to make a count, if it fails go back and recount. Then you can say "oh instead of wave b that was still part of the a" or whatever, it takes time. I've been trading a few years now and I'm still amazed when I see people post things like "if xyz breaks xx.xx then it's automatically going to xx.xx!!!!". They're usually in all caps and bold text. I've seen trillions of projections like that and they have the same success rate as a coin toss, maybe less. There are few times in any trading situation with any type of analysis that always delivers an absolute guarantee of what's going to happen in the future. Many times with elliot I see patterns develop where I would bet my life that I know whats going to happen next. I don't think any other type of ta can ever give you that. These moments occur sporadically and without notice. In between these times there are a lot of times where I don't really have a clue and other times where I have a pretty good idea and it turns out to be right. Then there are times where I think I know and then find out I'm wrong. I don't think it's possible to ask for more than that. The key to being a good trader is only trade the times where you know for sure or are pretty damn sure. By all means avoid taking potshots at things. Person to person with complete honesty I can tell you that ewave is real. I've seen stuff happen thats blown my mind. It's a whole nother ball game compared to ma's and macd and all that other stuff. However each person has to find their own filter that works for them so ma's and indicators might be the holy grail for another guy and he might say ewave sucks.

To: the-phoenix who wrote (1284)	4/4/2003 1:29:05 AM
From: At_The_Ask	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41536

One more sermon and then I'll leave you alone....g The only reason that I bother is because I know that you are serious about wanting to learn things. I appreciate that you ask intelligent questions, I learn as much from them as you do. if we could go all the way back to Tuesday's close from yesterday's highs (or higher) and still not know whether we were pointing up or down, then, for a wiggle trader, EW was not being very helpful. I understood your question. I pointed you to the tutorial because it's a generally accepted principal that the four of an impulse will stop at the 4 of 3 of one less degree. It's not technically invalid until it crosses back below the one but for trading you buy around that area(4 of 3) when you are in a strong impulse and then take the 5 on up. You simply can't try to do ewave without at least reading EWP. That is the base that you need to build from. The EWI tutorial is a free, with registration, ebook of that text. If you handicap yourself from the beginning you are asking for frustration. And if Tuesday's jello could be counted as either the beginning of a bullish impulse or a continuing correction lower, then again, how can I use it in my trading? A note about jello. It's fun to say jello and all that but in reality there isn't any such thing. Any pattern in any timeframe can be counted. The first wave of the impulse from yesterday was a good little impulse. It did not start at the "orthodox low" which is another concept that you would know if you read ewp. The point is that everything that happens makes sense in waves but it's not always easy to figure out. If you call something jello you are really saying "i don't want to bother trying to figure it out". Also you aren't going to be able to predict a five day rally by looking at a 10 minute chart(unless it's got a crapload of bars). The size of the structure and the time frame of the chart dictates the size of the moves that can be predicted from it. If you want to be able to sell or buy and stay in for a day or two you better at least look for structures in the 15-30 minute charts. To specifically address your concern about what can be predicted from onishkas count, look at my post from this am. I said that I expected us to struggle up to 885 and then either top or correct from there. After I posted that I went out for the day, came home, and guess what happened? That was based solely on ewave. No volume, no ma's, bb's, volume, adline, put\call, etc. You can only predict one or two wave sets into the future at any given time. We know that we did an impulse from tuesday. We know that the impulse will be corrected after five waves up. So depending on the way the wave looks then you either bet that the impulse is complete and go short or if the structure doesnt look done then you buy a pullback. The key is the shape of the action. This is how ewave differs from most TA and particulary modern stuff because aside from fib numbers it's completely free of higher math and rocket science. Ewave like chess is more of a pattern recognition thing. It's been proven that the best chess players are far above average in pattern recognition than most people. They perceive the structure of the pieces and the arrangement and at a glance and they can make intuitive decisions about what is happening. They don't look at each piece and discount the validity of moving each piece through it's entire range of motion. Essentially they look for the forest rather than measuring the width of each tree.