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Politics : The Castle -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane3 who wrote (1425)	4/4/2003 10:44:04 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7936

It might cause problems for the US, but it takes a lot to overwhelm the US. The US isn't going to spend $100bil on aid to Iraq, nor do I think that much is really needed. It might be needed to take care of all of Iraq's needs but it won't be needed to get Iraq to a better situation then it was before the war. It shouldn't cost that much to keep the people from starving, and to rebuild what we destroyed (considering that we will not be rebuilding the military or the presidential palaces.) Also the US treasury will not be the only source of rebuilding money. There is the $1.5bil of frozen Iraqi assets, Iraqi oil revenue (which should go up a lot), and Iraq will probably get some aid from other countries. Still the money that we will provide in aid will be one more strain on our budget which is already in the red. Tim

To: Lane3 who wrote (1425)	4/4/2003 7:15:23 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7936

Petrol not enough to ride road to recovery By Warren Vieth in Washington April 5 2003 smh.com.au The title of this article suggest that the US will have to cover a lot of the costs and the data at the end is supposed to support that idea but I'm not sure it does. " Estimates of Iraq's potential oil earnings during the first year or two after the war range from about $US15billion ($25million) to $US20billion. But, estimates of Iraq's reconstruction needs alone start at about $25billion and run as high as $100billion. Iraq's external debt - loans taken out from foreign countries and international creditors - totals at least $60billion and may be as much as $130billion." $20bil in the first two years (and then more in later years). Lets say $80bil in loans. I'm not sure what interest rate there is for the loans but lets say $4bil covers it. Lets say oil revenues are 1st year $8bil, second year $12bil, third year $20bil, and then $28bil per year after that. Assume half of the amount can go to interest and reconstruction. So first year reconstruction is only from aid and from frozen assets. 2nd year $4bil, 3rd year $6bil and ever year after that $10bil. Assuming $60bil to rebuild, Iraq would do it without help in 8 years. That is with no aid. Help from overseas would make it quicker. Also I think Iraq has the potential for more then $25bil a year from oil. Saudi exports something like $50 or $60bil of oil a year. Also while oil is Iraq's biggest source of money it isn't the only source. Most of the hard currency comes from oil, but some of the rebuilding work would be done by Iraqi's who could be paid in local currency. Tim