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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (91664)	4/9/2003 9:15:31 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Shi'ite Group to Boycott U.S. Talks on Iraq Wed April 9, 2003 05:44 PM ET By Jonathan Wright WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The main Iraqi Shi'ite opposition group said on Wednesday it would boycott a political meeting the United States is trying to arrange in southern Iraq next week because of the U.S. military presence. "We are not going to take part in this meeting in Nassiriya. We think this is part of General Garner's rule of Iraq and we are not going to be part of that project at all," said Hamid al-Bayati, the London representative of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). The Bush administration has appointed retired Lt. Gen Jay Garner to run civilian affairs in Iraq alongside the U.S. and British military presence. The United States has identified some 40 Iraqi politicians it wants to take part in preliminary discussions on the political future of the country after the collapse of the Baathist government of President Saddam Hussein. SCIRI, which is based in Tehran and dominated by Iraqi Shi'ites, is one of the largest single groups in opposition to Saddam. It has taken part in meetings with other groups but has always been wary of cooperation with the United States. Bayati told Reuters by telephone from London that SCIRI's objection to U.S. plans was that Washington envisaged an interim authority without full sovereignty over the country. "We could be part of an Iraqi government but we can't be part of a military rule over the country," he said. "Our understanding of what they are doing now is an Iraqi civil administration under General Garner's supervision for three months, maybe six months, and later on an Iraqi interim authority and then a provisional government. It is not an Iraqi authority with full sovereignty," he added. The telephone interview was interrupted by noisy celebrations in the background as SCIRI members in London welcomed the collapse of Saddam's authority in Baghdad. Analysts say the attitude of Iraq's Shi'ite Muslim majority will be crucial to the success of U.S. plans in Iraq. If Shi'ite clerics and politicians reject the U.S. military occupation, it could be hard for Garner and his future Iraqi allies to govern the country effectively, they say. Bayati noted that Iraq's leading Shi'ite cleric, the Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has not endorsed the U.S. presence. Last week Sistani asked his millions of followers to remain neutral in the fighting between U.S. forces and people loyal to Saddam. But he has not issued any fatwas since then. Bayati said Iraqis would give the United States very little time to hand over full power to Iraqis. "The Iraqi people would like to see an Iraqi government as soon as possible and they expect the military forces to leave when things settle down. The position we agreed in London (last year) was that an Iraqi government should be established immediately after Saddam's fall," he said. "So they must leave as soon as possible. I am thinking of weeks rather than months," he added. SCIRI moved a brigade of fighters into northern Iraq before the United States and Britain invaded Iraq from the south but the fighters have not taken part in the fighting. It is unclear how much popular support any of the Iraqi exile groups can muster inside the country after more than 30 years under repressive Baathist rule. The SCIRI leader, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqir Hakim, has decided to go home from 23 years in exile in Iran but the organization has not announced a date for his return. reuters.com

To: Sun Tzu who wrote (91664)	4/9/2003 11:35:37 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

The point here is that we are dealing with a region that mistrusts us immensely. And whether it is out of mistrust or for their own ulterior motives, any mistakes we make will be looked at in the worst possible light. Convincing them otherwise is a difficult act, but it is not impossible. We can and should take reasonable precautions against such mistakes, but I stress "reasonable". Not the precautions that various Arab commentators demand, because they cannot be satisfied. Like Lileks said, whatever. Even great precautions will ensure that the Arabs begin to get real and extract themselves from the cocoon of lies that they have wrapped themselves up in. In fact,it is not constructive to bend over backwards or deny plain facts to try to please anybody. We are not colonizing Iraq but we will be keeping order in it for the immediate future. Somebody must put down the farhouds before Iraq goes up in flames, and it is better if everybody knows who. The war was a walkover (Johnny Apple's quagmire "news analysis" of a week ago will make a good pair for his Afghanistan quagmire piece of October 2001). Arab armies are perfectly useless against any competent Western army, particularly ours, the best in the world. If it takes shocks to get any plain facts absorbed through the "poetic reality" that Arabs prefer to plain reality, then let there be shocks. The region will never improve until the Arabs stop telling themselves so many lies. At least in the Soviet block, people had the excuse that it was the government telling the people so many lies. The Arabs do it to themselves, by choice.