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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (91684)4/10/2003 12:00:47 AM
From: KonKilo  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 281500
 
Thoughful piece by Gideon Rose on the hardest part of the war, that of causing our post-fighting dreams to manifest in a constructive manner.

Iraq INC?
Don't expect postwar miracles from the Iraqi National Congress.
By Gideon Rose
Posted Wednesday, April 9, 2003, at 2:22 PM PT
slate.msn.com

There they go again. For several years the civilian hawks now in and around the Pentagon sought to topple Saddam on the cheap, arguing that the job could be contracted out to the Iraqi opposition. Luckily for everyone but the Iraqi leader, they were overruled, and in the end the Bush administration fought the war with American and British troops instead. Rather than learn from this mistake, however, the Pentagon hawks are now trying to repeat it.

The administration's postwar plans for Iraq are still being fought over internally, but three distinct themes appear to feature prominently: promoting democracy, limiting American involvement, and keeping the rest of the international community at arm's length. Many observers find this troika somewhat baffling, because they see no way of achieving all three objectives simultaneously. What they fail to appreciate are the magical powers attributed by administration hawks to the Iraqi opposition, and in particular to one opposition group known as the Iraqi National Congress. Just as before, people like Pentagon adviser Richard Perle think the INC can leap easily over the obstacles others worry about and will thus be able to transform Iraq in a flash.

Unfortunately, the INC is as ill-prepared to pull off a postwar miracle as it would have been for a wartime wonder. It can boast some heroic individual members, such as the dissident intellectual Kanan Makiya, but it has negligible military power, administrative capacity, or local backing. Iraq experts joke that the group has fewer supporters on the Tigris than on the Potomac.

The challenges of governing a post-Saddam Iraq will be huge and will include maintaining security across the country, reforming or establishing a new set of national political institutions, keeping intercommunal peace, and providing basic services to a large population while restarting a rundown and complicated economy. The notion that full responsibility for such matters can be quickly handed over to the INC without courting disaster is folly—and such obvious folly that it's likely the president will eventually step in to see that the hawks are overruled once again. George W. Bush might not care much for international institutions or the trans-Atlantic alliance, but he will care about how things go in Iraq, and sooner or later the INC's inability to handle matters there will become obvious. The real question is how much damage will be caused before the administration turns to non-INC options. (The smoke signals from inside the White House are hard to decipher: INC head Ahmed Chalabi has just been sent into Iraq, but his star inside the administration might already be waning.)

What future, then, for the administration's three principles? It would be a shame to see the commitment to democracy compromised. After so many years of brutal tyranny, the Iraqi people deserve to live better, freer lives, and it would indeed be wonderful—just as the hawks say—to see liberty and representative government blossom in the heart of the Arab world. So, while the easiest path to stability might be to turn control of Iraq over to some competent pro-American strongman, this would be both a tragedy and a mistake. To avoid both authoritarianism and chaos, however, the other two principles—limiting American and other foreign involvement—will have to be jettisoned.

The determination to cap America's role is already weakening (as it should), with administration officials now talking openly about staying in Iraq more than six months. Smart money is betting on a large U.S. presence lasting far longer than that—although look for this to be spun furiously to deflect grumbling at home and abroad. As Daniel Byman, a former CIA Iraq analyst who now teaches at Georgetown, puts it in a sobering study of the subject soon to be published in the journal International Security, "Most of the barriers to democracy in a post-Saddam Iraq are related directly or indirectly to security, and the United States and other occupying powers can provide this security [only] if they are willing to deploy considerable forces to Iraq for years."

The determination to keep out the United Nations, Europe, and the rest of the world might also eventually fall by the wayside, because it is sustained more by ideology and petulance than by logic. Precisely because the United States did not fight the war to seize control of Iraqi oil or colonize the country, it will end up wanting to share with others the unenviable burdens of getting Iraq back on its feet, and it will have to give up some autonomy in return. The Bush administration may scorn those who didn't support the war, but it will regret not having their help and blessing for the task of reconstruction—to paraphrase Bogie, maybe not today, maybe not tomorrow, but soon, and for the rest of its life. Negotiating the details of how to bring in others without ceding too much control over Iraq's future will be tricky, but hardly impossible—this is what the much-maligned striped-pants set over at the State Department does for a living, after all.

What the administration hawks seem not to realize yet is that toppling Saddam will not end the debate over the war's legitimacy. For many abroad, in fact, it will only confirm the belief that American power is dangerously unchecked. This is a problem. Scaring the bad guys is one thing; scaring the entire world is another, and something only a fool would laugh off. The Bush administration is full of Churchillians. It would do well to remember what the great man himself thought should come after resolution and defiance: "In Victory: Magnanimity. In Peace: Good Will."



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (91684)4/10/2003 12:27:27 AM
From: spiral3  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
extract themselves from the cocoon of lies that they have wrapped themselves up in

Nadine, here is one guy who is doing just that.

This is a now well known letter written in December last year from a former parliament member in Iran, Dr. Qasem Sho'leh Sa'di to Ayatollah Ali Khameneh'i the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, otherwise known as the big cheese.

He comes out swinging with a viciously deep challenge to Khamenei’s fundamental credibility - his religious authority to rule the country under the current law, then an incisive one-two punch critique of Iranian foreign & domestic policy, and finally, the logical knockout - a call for Khameneh'i to resign - if he has any honor at all, that is.

For me it helped to fill things Iranian in, in a very direct way, given my limited knowledge of the area. As former insiders turn to the outside the movement should radicalize, but where that leads to besides jail, who knows. Should we be helping people like this, do they want US help or would that hurt their credibility. Is this guy an Islamist ? I would think so most definitely, but one that believes in the separation of church and state, if that’s possible – always found that word a little tricky! At the least it’s a brilliant example of full on political dissent.

In the Name of God
Dr. Qasem Sho'leh Sa'di
1st Class Advocate
Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law and Political Science, University of Tehran
Founder and First Director of the Bureau for International Law Services of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Europe

An Open Letter To Hojjatoleslam Mr. Ali Khameneh'i

I have written these lines for the satisfaction of God, the defense of justice, your notification, 'permit the right and prohibit the evil', (amr beh ma'rouf va nehi az monker) and for the defense of the oppressed nation of Iran.
the full letter is here: iran-press-service.com

postscript to the letter:
TEHRAN 2 Apr. (IPS) Dr. Qasem Sho'leh Sa'di, one of Iran's leading dissident was freed Tuesday afternoon, after spending almost a month a half in prison.

Todays news, err…yesterdays news
>IRANIANS CELEBRATED THE FALL OF SADDAM HOSEYN

TEHRAN 9 Apr. (IPS) As the statues of Saddam Hoseyn were toppled across the country, some, like in the huge one in "Ferdaws" (Paradise) Place in Baghdad with the help of American tanks, Iranians, in their great majority, celebrated Wednesday the joining of the Iraqi tyrant in the endless "dustbin of history" with other world’s dictators, highlighting the enormous gap separating the people with a regime they hope would also join the one which ruled the neighbouring nation for the last 35 years.

Contrary to the reaction of the Arab world to the disgraceful disintegration of the Iraqi Ba’thist regime, the historic event did not surprised the Iranians but some high-ranking clerical officials like Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Islamic Republic’s most powerful man after the leader who, in his last Friday sermon, would assure the few worshippers that Baghdad would become American’s "quagmire".

"Though no one here would doubt about the outcome of this war, yet no one was expecting such a so-called Hollywood-like happy end. This also explains why Mr. Hashemi Rafsanjani, the Iranian Goebbels, had to cancel in extremis both a scheduled press conference and an interview with the Arabic-language television "al-Aalam" (The World, run by the official Iranian Radio and Television Organisation, reported to have attracted large audience in Iraq), one journalist in Tehran explained to Iran Press Service.

"The images we saw, coming direct from Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq, about the collapse of the Iraqi regime, the evaporation of Saddam’s Republican Guard and his Feda’iyn, forces and men given as the best equipped and loyal, ready to fight to the last of their blood, the disappearing of the high-ranking officials, both civilians and military, the tearing down Saddam’s statues, burning and stamping on his posters etc. were all too familiar to those of us who witnessed the fall of the late Shah", he observed, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"There is no sign showing that our leaders have come up with factual developments in international, regional and internal situations. As an example, ever since the start of the war until today that Saddam’s regime has collapsed, the way our Radio and Television and our senior officials have reacted is that of the one who is more Catholic than the Pope. They seem to have forgot that Saddam has imposed a war on us, killed more than half a million of our people, that we have hundreds of thousand disabled, some of them chemically wounded", noted Mr. Mohsen Sazegara, a veteran dissident journalist and politician.

Nevertheless, Iranian officials had to put up with the facts. In a recent press conference, Foreign Affairs Minister Kamal Kharrazi said the Islamic Republic could accommodate with a future Iraqi government "provided it is democratic and pluralistic, comprising all the major components of the Iraqi population", an indirect but clear reference to the Iran-backed and Tehran-based Supreme Assembly of the Islamic Republic of Iraq (SAIRI), one of the six Iraqi opposition groups that have formed a provisory committee to rule Iraq in a transition post-Saddam period.

The Iranians are afraid that with Mr. Ahmad Chalabi, the leader of the Washington-backed Iraqi National Congress (INC) – a prominent banker of Shi’a faith -- already "parachuted" by the Americans in the southern city of Nasseriyeh in the one hand and Hojjatoleslam Abdolmajid Kho’i, a senior Shi’a cleric already in the holly city of Najaf on the other, their protégé, Ayatollah Mohammad Baqer al-Hakim would be seated at a backbench in the future Iraqi Administration in Baghdad. ENDS IRAN POST SADDAM IRAQ 9403 iran-press-service.com