Yes we're all talking the same names, it's not just groupthink making us do that, it's more the fact that there are relatively few companies in this tiny sector .... and not much changes over the short term - a while ago a friend showed me a series of posts i'd printed out for him in December '01, they were mostly from russ' thread but not all ... the same tickers you mention here were prominent in them .... there have been three quite predictable changes - the sure-thing plays, Francisco, Corner Bay, and Minefinders .... first two taken out now, and most of us bargoon hunter types have scaled back on mfl, or sold out of it completely [i'm out now, but thinking of picking up a few] ... oh, and i guess Southwestern, which i was hot on back then [but managed to be offside 'temporarily' when it went ballistic, aargh, good on ya for being smarter] .... other than those, much is the same ... relative values have shifted somewhat, between stocks and overall in reaction to the gold market, but it's striking how little has changed really, in a year and a half almost, since those posts were made
mfl.to - i paid much more than you for my cheapest shares there, .92 or something ... which was fine, but then i developed the uncanny ability to make the share go north by selling a few ... four times minimum, i was convinced i could get them back cheaper, sold some, and the thing would instantly put on fifteen to fifty per cent ... managed to turn a multi-bragger into maybe a triple overall, never got it right once
suf.to - went the other way for me, i'd let some go and then get them back cheaper, never failed yet .... out of it at the moment, not sure where it's going now, got to look close asap, i hear there is a letter from Patrick Evans posted somewhere, probably on stockhouse, it addresses the political risk issue, which is the only black mark on that production imho
I've kept the drillbit plays to a small fraction of the whole, got quite a few tickers of them, but outside of Candente and X-Cal there is no considerable amount at risk ... and really the latter, xcl, is in the sure-thing category, it's only a matter of how much metal they come up with, and how economic it is .... i rank it more with the old fgx/bay/mfl class, like Alamos agi.v which may very well get taken out, whether before or after they've gotten Mulatos financed and/or developed, you never know .... but i've stayed more with the known-metal stuff this last winter, knowing that there were periods coming in which i couldn't stay in close touch
wtc.to - very much in the known-metal class, but entirely dependent on the PoAg ... so, hard to say ... i'm out at the moment, probably will leave in a small order ~3.50ish, but will save ammo for more around 3.15 or so ... just not sold on silver, open to the idea, but not convinced
ckg.v - i got another small fill there, but keeping it moderate for now .... made all the same mistakes as with fgx, so far, trading it off at the wrong times, missing the moves ... maybe it'll make a better buy-and-hold than a trader
'ngt.wt (hey, you are the expert there)' - lol, yeah well, remains to be seen, eh ... not the best place for July's rent money maybe -g- ... but agi common is still my largest position, the chances of Chester Millar getting skunked on this one are pretty slim, i should think
moy.to - there's still a healthy gain left in it from where it was trading friday ... eventually ... this is in the sure-thing category, which is 'sure' only relatively speaking, of course .... but, what could go wrong [-g-]
dnt.v - best chances on a pure drillbit play imho ... the structure, the properties, the people and the support they get, whole thing points to reasonable risk/reward i think .... Roulston is touting Candente now, they say [was he on it a year ago? .. can't recall] ..... actually i have more dnt than the next three pure explorers combined, for sure that magic name 'Pierina' has something to do with that, ¡gooo don Fredy!
Gold, Realpolitik, and the 'war premium' - ... well was that bump just war premium?? ... if so, how can it come out of the price entirely in the middle of a perma-war .... this is not even half-time in the hockey game yet, now they've got Iraq sure, but occupying it may well prove to be more difficult than conquering it in the first place .... already for weeks now there have been noises made in the direction of Damascus, which is not so far from a link-up point around those Golan Heights, hmmm ..... real neocons want tanks in Tehran, it is said, and in no way are their interests served by attention getting refocussed on domestic issues prior to November '04
Currency factors mean more over the longer term, imho ... things like the need to avoid deflation, debt levels, the islamic dinar ..... one thing that will happen for sure, is iraqui oil will be taken off euro pricing and put back into usd, there is an interesting article by a Geoff Heard on this, posted on russ' thread ...... hard to say where gold is going near-term, but on this day next year it will be higher than today, imho ... and what are the alternatives, anyway? ... [rhetorical question-g-] ..... so i dunno, think i'll just stick with quality golds and spend most energy on living Real Life, keep a fair bit of cash around for taking advantage of such bargoons as may come up, get a few shares off on any spikes that come along, same old same old .... meantime there's a real estate boom coming in an area near here where we have interests, we can smell it starting already, the cycles are strange here on the coast, they keep rolling well after peaks have turned to crashes elsewhere ..... please god give me one more 1980 and i promise not to screw it up this time -g- |
