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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6646)	4/11/2003 2:23:19 PM
From: muckraker71	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6974

Agreed. You made the case more quantitatively than I did. Point is, SEBL still does about $1.4B/yr (run-rate) and is profitable. And knowing what I know about the way the company operates, they are absolutely committed to staying profitable. Stk may not double every year, but I'm willing to bet chojiro that SEBL will be trading at these levels or higher between now and the end of the year. what do you say chojiro?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (6646)	4/11/2003 9:30:30 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Mike, you still getting fooled by your adjusted free cash flow measurements? Check this out, from the 10K published last month. 2001 2002 Change Shareholder Equity: 1,836,102 1,957,450 121,348 Paid In Capital 1,357,422 1,486,612 129,190 Shareholder Gains 478,680 470,838 (7,842) [lifetime] If you think you have positive free cash flow and yet you see declining shareholder equity net of paid in capital, something's going on you ought to be thinkin' about. Learning to read a balance sheet should be mandatory for DIY "investors" who don't want to be taken to the cleaners. As for $3/sh being a 34% discount from cash & equivalents, remember, it's not like you can buy the cash and duck the liabilities. So price as a percent of cash is a pretty naive metric. At $3 share, and 552 M fully diluted shares, makes 1,656 M$ market cap. Assets net of liabilities is 1,957 M$. If we set property, plant and equipment at $0.15 on the dollar and value goodwill and intangibles at zero, well at $3 the company is trading at par. Considering the company wouldn't even be turning a paper profit if it weren't for generous shareholders paying part of the wages of its employees, $3 isn't so crazy after all. John